Modeling Copper Price: A Regime-Switching Approach
This paper explores the virtues of Markov-Switching models to characterize the behavior of copper price. In particular, we study the performance of several univariate specifications of this type of models, both in and out of sample, comparing them also with constant parameter models such as ARMA and GARCH. The main finding is that allowing for a regime-switching variance in the error term is most relevant in explaining the behavior of this price.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003.
"Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability,"
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Choi, Kyongwook & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2010. "Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4388-4399, August.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
- Han Hong & Bruce Preston, 2008.
"Bayesian Averaging, Prediction and Nonnested Model Selection,"
NBER Working Papers
14284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hong, Han & Preston, Bruce, 2012. "Bayesian averaging, prediction and nonnested model selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 358-369.
- René Garcia, 1995.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
- Chan, Wing Hong & Young, Denise, 2009. "A New Look at Copper Markets: A Regime-Switching Jump Model," Working Papers 2009-13, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.