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Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Zhao

    (Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas 75080)

  • Guofu Zhou

    (Olin School of Business, St. Louis, Missouri 63130)

  • Xiaoneng Zhu

    (School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and Shanghai Institute of International Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China)

Abstract

We examine the macro-spanning hypothesis for bond returns in international markets. Based on a large panel of real-time macroeconomic variables that are not subject to revisions, we find that global macro factors have predictive power for bond returns unspanned by yield factors. Furthermore, we estimate macro-finance term structure models with the unspanned global macro factors and find that the global macro factors influence the market prices of level and slope risks and induce comovements in forward term premia in global bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:67:y:2021:i:12:p:7825-7843
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3852
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