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Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Monica Billio

    (University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy])

  • Laurent Ferrara

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, DGEI-DAMEP - Banque de France)

  • Dominique Guegan

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Gian Luigi Mazzi

    (Eurostat)

Abstract

In this paper, we aim at assessing Markov-switching and threshold models in their ability to identify turning points of economic cycles. By using vintage data that are updated on a monthly basis, we compare their ability to detect ex-post the occurrence of turning points of the classical business cycle, we evaluate the stability over time of the signal emitted by the models and assess their ability to detect in real-time recession signals. In this respect, we have built an historical vintage database for the Euro area going back to 1970 for two monthly macroeconomic variables of major importance for short-term economic outlook, namely the Industrial Production Index and the Unemployment Rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00423890, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00423890
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00423890
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2014.
    2. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Wavelets for Business Cycle Analysis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12023r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Nov 2013.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    industrial production; Business cycle; Euro zone; Markov switching model; SETAR model; unemployment; industrial production.; Cycle d'activité; zone Euro; modèle de Markov Switching; modèle à seuil; chômage; production industrielle.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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