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Detecting Cyclical Turning Points: The ABCD Approach and Two Probabilistic Indicators

  • Jacques Anas

    ()

  • Laurent Ferrara

    ()

The intricate issue of detecting and forecasting macroeconomic cycles turning points has been once more perfectly illustrated with the global downturn experienced by most countries around the world in 2000-2001. Governments and Central Banks are very sensitive to economic indicators showing signs of deterioration in order to adjust their policies sufficiently in advance to avoid further deterioration or even a recession. These indicators require at least two qualities: they must be reliable and they must provide a readable signal as soon as possible. In this paper, we discuss ...

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art12-en
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Article provided by OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys in its journal Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

Volume (Year): 2004 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 193-225

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Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkaa:5lmqcr2jcpbw
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