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Changing-regime volatility: A fractionally integrated SETAR model

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  • Gilles Dufrenot

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille)

  • Dominique Guegan

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Anne Peguin-Feissolle

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille)

Abstract

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with different long-memory processes in both regimes. We briefly present the memory properties of this model and propose an estimation method. Such a process is applied to the absolute and squared returns of five stock indices. A comparison with simple FARIMA models is made using some forecastibility criteria. Our empirical results suggest that our model offers an interesting alternative competing framework to describe the persistent dynamics in modeling the returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Dufrenot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "Changing-regime volatility: A fractionally integrated SETAR model," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185369, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00185369 DOI: 10.1080/09603100600993778 Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00185369
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aloy Marcel & Tong Charles Lai & Peguin-Feissolle Anne & Dufrénot Gilles, 2013. "A smooth transition long-memory model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, pages 281-296.
    2. Mohamed Boutahar & Gilles Dufrénot & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2008. "A Simple Fractionally Integrated Model with a Time-varying Long Memory Parameter d t," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 225-241, April.
    3. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Wavelet based Estimation of Time- Varying Long Memory Model with Nonlinear Fractional Integration Parameter," Working Papers 2014-284, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    4. Goldman Elena & Nam Jouahn & Tsurumi Hiroki & Wang Jun, 2013. "Regimes and long memory in realized volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 521-549, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Stock indices; SETAR; Long-memory;

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