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A Smooth Transition Long-Memory Model

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  • Marcel Aloy

    () (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Gilles Dufrenot

    () (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Charles Lai Tong

    () (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Anne Peguin-Feissolle

    () (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new fractional model with a time-varying long-memory parameter. The latter evolves nonlinearly according to a transition variable through a logistic function. We present a LR-based test that allows to discriminate between the standard fractional model and our model. We further apply the nonlinear least squares method to estimate the long memory parameter. We present an application to the unemployment rate in the United -States from 1948 to 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Aloy & Gilles Dufrenot & Charles Lai Tong & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2012. "A Smooth Transition Long-Memory Model," Working Papers halshs-00793680, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00793680
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00793680
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1144-y is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:bpj:jtsmet:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:20:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:18:n:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Miller Stephen M. & Gupta Rangan, 2017. "Time-varying persistence of inflation: evidence from a wavelet-based approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Massimiliano Caporin & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Time-varying persistence in US inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 423-439, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-memory; nonlinearity; time varying parameter; logistic;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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