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Is there a European Business Cycle?


  • Michael Artis


The paper uses quarterly GDP data for some 30 years up to and including 2001, to examine the identity and development of the European business cycle. Cycles are identified by using a band-pass filter version of the Hodrick-Prescott filter and affiliations are examined using clustering techniques and classical multidimensional scaling applied to cross-correlations and other measures of cyclical sympathy. Twenty-three (23) countries are examined, of which 15 are European. The sample is divided into three 10-year periods to examine changes in affiliation. The overall verdict is that it is quite hard to discern a homogenous or developing "European cycle" with these data. Put loosely, globalization may be proceeding as fast as Europeanization.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1053

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    2. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    3. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    4. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
    5. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    6. Beine, Michel & Candelon, Bertrand, 2003. "EMU Membership and Business Cycle Phases in Europe: Markov-Switching VAR Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 18, pages 214-242.
    7. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. William C. Gruben & Jahyeong Koo & Eric Millis, 2002. "How much does international trade affect business cycle synchronization ?," Working Papers 0203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Endogenous Symmetry of Shocks in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 263-287, July.
    11. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    12. Ray Barrell & Martin Weale, 2003. "Designing and Choosing Macroeconomic Frameworks: The Position of the UK after Four Years of the Euro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 132-148.
    13. Hossein Samiei & Zenon Kontolemis, 2000. "The U.K. Business Cycle, Monetary Policy, and EMU Entry," IMF Working Papers 00/210, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
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