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Indikatoren für die globale Konjunktur

  • Klaus Abberger
  • Maximilian Frey
  • Michaela Kesina
  • Anna Stangl

Neben Konjunkturindikatoren für einzelne Länder spielen auch Konjunkturindikatoren für länderübergreifende Regionen und Instrumente für die Beobachtung der globalen Konjunktur eine wichtige Rolle. Der vorliegende Artikel stellt die Instrumente und die wichtigsten Indikatoren für eine Konjunkturbeobachtung auf globaler Ebene vor und vergleicht ihre jeweiligen Eigenschaften. Die durchgeführten Berechnungen zeigen, dass ein Monitoringsystem für die globale Konjunktur aus vier Zeitreihen bestehen sollte: dem Composite Leading Indicator, dem Business Confidence Indicator und der internationalen Industrieproduktion, alle drei veröffentlicht durch die OECD, sowie dem durch das ifo Institut veröffentlichten ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima. Mit Hilfe dieser vier Zeitreihen lässt sich die Entwicklung im globalen Konjunkturzyklus abschätzen.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2009/ifosd_2009_16_3.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 16 (08)
Pages: 32-41

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:16:p:32-41
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  1. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "International Business Cycles: What are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 90, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, 02.
  3. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September.
  6. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November.
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