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Indikatoren für die globale Konjunktur

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Maximilian Frey
  • Michaela Kesina
  • Anna Wolf

    ()

Abstract

Neben Konjunkturindikatoren für einzelne Länder spielen auch Konjunkturindikatoren für länderübergreifende Regionen und Instrumente für die Beobachtung der globalen Konjunktur eine wichtige Rolle. Der vorliegende Artikel stellt die Instrumente und die wichtigsten Indikatoren für eine Konjunkturbeobachtung auf globaler Ebene vor und vergleicht ihre jeweiligen Eigenschaften. Die durchgeführten Berechnungen zeigen, dass ein Monitoringsystem für die globale Konjunktur aus vier Zeitreihen bestehen sollte: dem Composite Leading Indicator, dem Business Confidence Indicator und der internationalen Industrieproduktion, alle drei veröffentlicht durch die OECD, sowie dem durch das ifo Institut veröffentlichten ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima. Mit Hilfe dieser vier Zeitreihen lässt sich die Entwicklung im globalen Konjunkturzyklus abschätzen.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Maximilian Frey & Michaela Kesina & Anna Wolf, 2009. "Indikatoren für die globale Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(16), pages 32-41, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:16:p:32-41
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifosd_2009_16_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    2. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
    3. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, February.
    5. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September.
    6. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-632, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evgenia Kudymowa & Johanna Garnitz & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Ifo World Economic Survey und die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in ausgewählten Ländern," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(19), pages 23-30, October.
    2. Evgenia Kudymowa & Johanna Garnitz & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Ifo World Economic Survey and the Business Cycle in Selected Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(4), pages 51-57, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturindikator; Geschäftsklima; Konjunktur; Weltwirtschaftsklima; Unternehmen; Deutschland; Welt;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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