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L'Allemagne joue-t-elle le rôle de locomotive vis-à-vis de la France ?

  • Catherine Bruno
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    [eng] International real business cycles : is Germany a locomotive for France ? Catherine Bruno A major focus of attention in macroeconomics in recent years has been to identify empirically the forces that induce fluctuations in econo- mic aggregates. The motivation of this literature has been to assess the relative importance of real versus nomimal shocks in the generation and propagation of business cycles. The purpose of this paper is to extend this literature to an open-economy setting . We develop and estimate a multivariate, structural model to measure the relative contribution of supply, demand, monetary and competitiveness shocks in explaining French and German economic fluctuations. We also compare French and German stylized facts to each other. Our goal is to ask if Germany is a locomotive for France over the 1960-1989 sample. We notice that German output expansion always precedes French one and that Germany is a locomotive for France in the case of common supply shocks. [fre] Cette étude propose une évaluation des liens économiques qu'entretiennent la France et l'Allemagne sur la période 1960-1989. Plus précisément, nous nous demandons si l'Allemagne a joué au cours des trente dernières années le rôle de locomotive vis-à-vis de la France. Nous recourons à l'économétrie des séries temporelles — la modélisation vectorielle autorégressive structurelle — pour évaluer les sources de fluctuations des économies française et allemande, sources de fluctuations qui sont soit spécifiquement nationales soit communes aux deux pays. Nous complétons l'étude des relations entre la France et l'Allemagne par une présentation des faits stylisés des deux économies. La comparaison des faits stylisés allemands et français d'une part, et l'étude des sources de fluctuations des deux économies dans le cadre d'un modèle vecto- riel autorégressif d'autre part, confirment le rôle de locomotive joué par l'Allemagne dans ses échanges avec la France.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ofce.1995.1395
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_53_1_1395
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 53 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 165-195

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_53_1_1395
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1995.1395
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce

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    1. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1978. "The problem of inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    3. Joël Toujas-Bernate, 1991. "L'Allemagne, premier exportateur industriel mondial," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 246(1), pages 109-117.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September.
    6. Argy, Victor & Salop, Joanne, 1983. "Price and Output Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Expansion in a Two-Country World under Flexible Exchange Rates," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 228-46, July.
    7. Catherine Bruno & Franck Portier, 1993. "Cycle réel, représentation VAR et ouverture de l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(1), pages 245-281.
    8. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1984. "The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
    12. Pierre Joly & Pierre Ralle, 1991. "Productivité : des niveaux comparables en France et en Allemagne occidentale," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 246(1), pages 119-127.
    13. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
    14. Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort & Eric Renault, 1987. "Kullback Causality Measures," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 6-7, pages 369-410.
    15. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1.
    16. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    17. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    19. repec:adr:anecst:y:1987:i:6-7:p:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989. "International Business Cycles," Papers 7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    21. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November.
    22. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
    23. repec:adr:anecst:y:1987:i:6-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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