IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/rvofce/ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_53_1_1395.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

L'Allemagne joue-t-elle le rôle de locomotive vis-à-vis de la France ?

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Bruno

Abstract

[eng] International real business cycles : is Germany a locomotive. for France ?. Catherine Bruno. A major focus of attention in macroeconomics in recent years has. been to identify empirically the forces that induce fluctuations in econo-. mic aggregates. The motivation of this literature has been to assess the relative importance of real versus nomimal shocks in the generation and. propagation of business cycles. The purpose of this paper is to extend. this literature to an open-economy setting . We develop and estimate a. multivariate, structural model to measure the relative contribution of. supply, demand, monetary and competitiveness shocks in explaining. French and German economic fluctuations. We also compare French and. German stylized facts to each other. Our goal is to ask if Germany is a. locomotive for France over the 1960-1989 sample. We notice that German output expansion always precedes French one and that Germany is. a locomotive for France in the case of common supply shocks. [fre] Cette étude propose une évaluation des liens économiques. qu'entretiennent la France et l'Allemagne sur la période 1960-1989.. Plus précisément, nous nous demandons si l'Allemagne a joué au. cours des trente dernières années le rôle de locomotive vis-à-vis de. la France. Nous recourons à l'économétrie des séries temporelles. — la modélisation vectorielle autorégressive structurelle — pour. évaluer les sources de fluctuations des économies française et. allemande, sources de fluctuations qui sont soit spécifiquement. nationales soit communes aux deux pays. Nous complétons l'étude. des relations entre la France et l'Allemagne par une présentation. des faits stylisés des deux économies. La comparaison des faits. stylisés allemands et français d'une part, et l'étude des sources de. fluctuations des deux économies dans le cadre d'un modèle vecto-. riel autorégressif d'autre part, confirment le rôle de locomotive joué. par l'Allemagne dans ses échanges avec la France.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Bruno, 1995. "L'Allemagne joue-t-elle le rôle de locomotive vis-à-vis de la France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(1), pages 165-195.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_53_1_1395
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1995.1395
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1995.1395
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_53_1_1395
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    3. Catherine Bruno & Franck Portier, 1993. "Cycle réel, représentation VAR et ouverture de l'économie française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(1), pages 245-281.
    4. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "The Open Economy: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 459-516 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    6. Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-1164, December.
    8. Jobert, T., 1992. "Test de recine unitaire : une strategie et sa mise en oeuvre," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.44, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September.
    11. Pierre Joly & Pierre Ralle, 1991. "Productivité : des niveaux comparables en France et en Allemagne occidentale," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 246(1), pages 119-127.
    12. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-632, November.
    13. repec:adr:anecst:y:1987:i:6-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    15. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    16. David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
    18. Joël Toujas-Bernate, 1991. "L'Allemagne, premier exportateur industriel mondial," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 246(1), pages 109-117.
    19. Christian Gouriéroux & Alain Monfort & Eric Renault, 1987. "Kullback Causality Measures," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 6-7, pages 369-410.
    20. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-359, June.
    21. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    22. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1978. "The problem of inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, January.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    24. repec:adr:anecst:y:1987:i:6-7:p:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Argy, Victor & Salop, Joanne, 1983. "Price and Output Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Expansion in a Two-Country World under Flexible Exchange Rates," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 228-246, July.
    26. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_53_1_1395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.