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Cycles internationaux : éléments pour une problématique appliquée

  • Jacky Fayolle
  • Paul-Emmanuel Micolet
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    [eng] The identification and the analysis of cycles improve the understanding of the international economic history. They allow to enlighten its timing and its critical moments. These moments are favourable to changes of international relations and their result can influence the world growth outlooks. This paper proposes a double identification of the international growth cycles, either as intersection of the elementary national cycles, or as specific cycles of international aggregates. Short term cycles' diffusion and synchronisation indexes are built for the OCDE and European countries. The comparison of the different methods of cyclical identification shows that international cycles are linked with the timing of the world capital accumulation. The international cycles do not diffuse into an homogeneous world economy. The short term tuning of the differences between potential national growths is difficult. It can cause tensions and constraints for the national cycles. All the OCDE countries do not have the same propensity for cyclical fluctuations. A cyclical classification of these countries is proposed. It is necessary to take in account this heterogeneity in order to understand the impulse and the propagation of the international fluctuations conveniently. [fre] Le repérage et l'analyse des cycles concourent à la compréhension de l'histoire économique internationale. Ils permettent d'en expliciter les chronologies et les moments significatifs, qui se prêtent aux changements de Г organisation des rapports internationaux et dont l'issue peut infléchir durablement les perspectives de la croissance mondiale. Cet article propose un double repérage des cycles de croissance internationaux, soit comme intersection des cycles nationaux élémentaires, soit comme cycles spécifiques d'agrégats internationaux, comme le commerce international. Des indicateurs de diffusion et de synchronisation des cycles conjoncturels au sein de l'OCDE et de l'Europe sont élaborés pour apprécier les degrés de généralisation et de simultanéité d'une expansion, d'une récession ou d'une situation de retournement à l'échelle internationale. La comparaison des différents repérages des cycles internationaux montre que ceux-ci ont étroitement partie liée avec les rythmes de l accumulation du capital à l'échelle mondiale. Ces cycles internationaux ne se propagent pas au sein d'une économie mondiale parfaitement homogène. Les croissances potentielles de long terme des différentes nations peuvent différer, ce qui témoigne, notamment, de phénomènes de rattrapage. L'harmo-nisation conjoncturelle des croissances potentielles nationales ne va pas de soi et peut être à l'origine de tensions et de retournements cycliques lorsqu'elle s'avère insuffisamment accommodante à l 'égard des expansions nationales. De plus, tous les pays, même à s'en tenir aux pays de l'OCDE, ne manifestent pas la même propension aux fluctuations cycliques, ni la même régularité de ces fluctuations. Une typologie des pays, en fonction de leurs propriétés cycliques, peut être esquissée. L'impulsion et la propagation des fluctuations à l 'échelle internationale ne peuvent être pleinement comprises sans la prise en compte de cette hétérogénéité. C'est aussi cette dépendance du comportement cyclique de l'économie internationale à l'égard de ses structures concrètes, qui rend difficile la synthèse historique des régularités susceptibles de le caractériser.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ofce.1997.1468
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1997_num_62_1_1468
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 62 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 109-150

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1997_num_62_1_1468
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1997.1468
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce

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