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Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?

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  • Fabio Canova
  • Jane Marrinan

Abstract

This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi-country model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared. In the short run the contemporaneous correlation of disturbances determines the main features of the transmission. In the medium run production interdependencies account for the transmission of technology shocks and consumption interdependencies account for the transmission of government shocks. Technology disturbances, which are mildly correlated across countries, are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data. The model also accounts for the low cross country consumption correlations observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Canova & Jane Marrinan, 1996. "Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Economics Working Papers 188, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:188
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    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2014.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Ubide, Angel J., 1998. "International business cycles, financial markets and household production," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 545-572, April.
    3. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    4. N. Antonakakis & H. Badinger, 2014. "International business cycle spillovers since the 1870s," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3682-3694, October.
    5. González, Manuel, 2004. "La Curva de Retorno y el Modelo C-CAPM: Evidencia para Chile," MPRA Paper 309, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology and government disturbances; production interdependencies; consumption interdependencies; transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade

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