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Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries

  • Amado Peiró

    (Universitat de València)

Registered author(s):

    This paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices, and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the U.S. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates that, in the last four decades, these comovements are clearly significant in all the variables, with the possible exception of short-term interest rates, and they are stronger for long-term interest rates; nevertheless, they are rather unstable over time. Este artículo estudia la existencia de un ciclo económico mundial mediante elexamen de movimientos comunes en la producción, los precios y los tipos de interés enlas tres mayores economías mundiales: Alemania, Japón y los Estados Unidos. Deacuerdo con estudios anteriores, las relaciones contemporáneas dominan claramente alas relaciones dinámicas a corto plazo. La evidencia indica que, en las últimas cuatrodécadas, estos movimientos comunes son claramente significativos para todas lasvariables, con la posible excepción de los tipos de interés a corto plazo, y de mayorintensidad para los tipos de interés a largo plazo; sin embargo, son bastante inestables alo largo del tiempo.

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2002-16.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2002
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    Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2002-16.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2002
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by Ivie
    Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2002-16
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    2. Selover, David D. & Jensen, Roderick V., 1999. "'Mode-locking' and international business cycle transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 591-618, February.
    3. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
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    7. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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    10. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
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    14. Ahmed, Shaghil & Ickes, Barry W. & Ping Wang & Byung Sam Yoo, 1993. "International Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 335-59, June.
    15. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    16. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November.
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    21. Jaeger, Albert, 1994. "Mechanical Detrending by Hodrick-Prescott Filtering: A Note," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 493-500.
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