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Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries

  • Amado Peiró

    (Universitat de València)

Registered author(s):

    This paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices, and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the U.S. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates that, in the last four decades, these comovements are clearly significant in all the variables, with the possible exception of short-term interest rates, and they are stronger for long-term interest rates; nevertheless, they are rather unstable over time. Este artículo estudia la existencia de un ciclo económico mundial mediante elexamen de movimientos comunes en la producción, los precios y los tipos de interés enlas tres mayores economías mundiales: Alemania, Japón y los Estados Unidos. Deacuerdo con estudios anteriores, las relaciones contemporáneas dominan claramente alas relaciones dinámicas a corto plazo. La evidencia indica que, en las últimas cuatrodécadas, estos movimientos comunes son claramente significativos para todas lasvariables, con la posible excepción de los tipos de interés a corto plazo, y de mayorintensidad para los tipos de interés a largo plazo; sin embargo, son bastante inestables alo largo del tiempo.

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2002-16.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2002
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    Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2002-16.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2002
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by Ivie
    Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2002-16
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    1. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    2. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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    8. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
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    10. Greenwood, J. & Williamson, S.D., 1988. "International Financial Intermediation And Aggregate Fluctuations Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes," RCER Working Papers 120, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    11. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November.
    12. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    14. Selover, David D. & Jensen, Roderick V., 1999. "'Mode-locking' and international business cycle transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 591-618, February.
    15. Selahattin Dibooglu, 2000. "International Monetary Regimes and Incidence and Transmission of Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from the Bretton Woods and Modern Floating Periods," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 590-608, January.
    16. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Sources and propagation of international output cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 133-166, October.
    17. Ahmed, S. & Ickes, B. & Wang, P. & Yoo, S., 1989. "International Business Cycles," Papers 7-89-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    18. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
    20. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September.
    21. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
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