IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Do media data help to predict German industrial production?

Listed author(s):
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Thomas, Tobias
  • Ulbricht, Dirk

In an uncertain world, decisions by market participants are based on expectations. Thus, sentiment indicators reflecting expectations are proven at predicting economic variables. However, survey respondents largely perceive the world through media reports. Typically, crude media information, like word-count indices, is used in the prediction of macroeconomic and financial variables. Here, we employ a rich data set provided by Media Tenor International, based on sentiment analysis of opinion-leading media in Germany from 2001 to 2014, transformed into several monthly indices. German industrial production is predicted in a real-time out-of-sample forecasting experiment using more than 17,000 models formed of all possible combinations with a maximum of 3 out of 48 macroeconomic, survey, and media indicators. Media data are indispensable for the prediction of German industrial production both for individual models and as a part of combined forecasts, particularly during the global financial crisis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/98712/1/790217295.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) in its series DICE Discussion Papers with number 149.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:zbw:dicedp:149
Contact details of provider: Postal:
+49 211 81-13820

Phone: +49 211 81-15494
Fax: +49 211 81-15499
Web page: http://www.dice.hhu.de/en.html
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Maximilian Podstawski & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption?: A Real-Time Evidence for the US," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 997, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Jan Grossarth-Maticek & Johannes Mayr, 2008. "Medienberichte als Konjunkturindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(07), pages 17-29, April.
  3. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle," KOF Working papers 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  4. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
  5. Ilaria Bordino & Stefano Battiston & Guido Caldarelli & Matthieu Cristelli & Antti Ukkonen & Ingmar Weber, 2011. "Web search queries can predict stock market volumes," Papers 1110.4784, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2012.
  6. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
  7. Denzau, Arthur T & North, Douglass C, 1994. "Shared Mental Models: Ideologies and Institutions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 3-31.
  8. von Hayek, Friedrich August, 1989. "The Pretence of Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3-7, December.
  9. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
  10. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
  11. Konstantin Kholodilin & Maximilian Podstawski & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption?," KOF Working papers 10-256, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  12. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
  13. Ammann, Manuel & Frey, Roman & Verhofen, Michael, 2012. "Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?," Working Papers on Finance 1204, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  14. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:dicedp:149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.