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Mit Zeitungen Konjunkturprognosen erstellen: Eine Vergleichsstudie für die Schweiz und Deutschland

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Abstract

Can information extracted from newspaper articles help forecasting the economy? A new study at KOF in which we conduct a simple keyword search after the word "recession" in the newspapers Handelsblatt and Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), as an attempt to grasp the German and the Swiss business cycle respectively, provides positive evidence. A prediction model in which the keyword search is added performs equally well, if not better than established economic indicators in Germany and Switzerland. This applies also compared to predictions made with "Google Trends" data.

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  • David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Mit Zeitungen Konjunkturprognosen erstellen: Eine Vergleichsstudie für die Schweiz und Deutschland," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(3), pages 104-117, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:7:y:2013:i:3:p:104-117
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nowcasting; Recession; R-word Index; Google Trends; Newspapers; Switzerland; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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