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Reading between the Lines: Using Media to Improve German Inflation Forecasts

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  • Benjamin Beckers
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Dirk Ulbricht

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated linguistic sentiment algorithms and business cycle news rated by experts perform best and are superior to simple word-count indicators and autoregressive forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Beckers & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2017. "Reading between the Lines: Using Media to Improve German Inflation Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1665, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Foltas, Alexander, 2020. "Testing investment forecast efficiency with textual data," Working Papers 19, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    2. Olivier de Bandt & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Julien Denes & Alexandre Dhenin & Annabelle De Gaye & Pierre-Antoine Robert, 2023. "Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France," Working papers 921, Banque de France.
    3. Ulrich Fritsche & Johannes Puckelwald, 2018. "Deciphering Professional Forecasters’ Stories - Analyzing a Corpus of Textual Predictions for the German Economy," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201804, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation prediction; media sentiment indicators; news reports; real-time forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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