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Reuters Sentiment and Stock Returns

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  • Matthias W. Uhl

Abstract

Sentiment from more than 3.6 million Reuters news articles is tested in a vector autoregression model framework on its ability to forecast returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index. We show that Reuters sentiment can explain and predict changes in stock returns better than macroeconomic factors. We further find that negative Reuters sentiment has more predictive power than positive Reuters sentiment. Trading strategies with Reuters sentiment achieve significant outperformance with high success rates as well as high Sharpe ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias W. Uhl, 2014. "Reuters Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 287-298, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:15:y:2014:i:4:p:287-298
    DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2014.967852
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    Cited by:

    1. Yen-Ju Hsu & Yang-Cheng Lu & J. Jimmy Yang, 2021. "News sentiment and stock market volatility," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1122, October.
    2. Prajwal Eachempati & Praveen Ranjan Srivastava, 2021. "Accounting for unadjusted news sentiment for asset pricing," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 383-422, May.
    3. Yang, Shanxiang & Liu, Zhechen & Wang, Xinjie, 2020. "News sentiment, credit spreads, and information asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Hadhri, Sinda, 2023. "Do cryptocurrencies feel the music?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Mazzotta, Stefano, 2022. "Immigration narrative sentiment from TV news and the stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    6. Brandt, Michael W. & Gao, Lin, 2019. "Macro fundamentals or geopolitical events? A textual analysis of news events for crude oil," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 64-94.
    7. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri & Rodiat Lawal, 2024. "Chasing noise in the stock market: an inquiry into the dynamics of investor sentiment and asset pricing," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 135-169, January.
    8. Marco Caiffa & Vincenzo Farina & Lucrezia Fattobene, 2021. "CEO Duality: Newspapers and Stock Market Reactions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Bianconi, Marcelo & Hua, Xiaxin & Tan, Chih Ming, 2015. "Determinants of systemic risk and information dissemination," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 352-368.
    10. Benjamin Beckers & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2017. "Reading between the Lines: Using Media to Improve German Inflation Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1665, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Wu, Ling & Hock Ow, Siew, 2021. "The Impact of News Sentiment on the Stock Market Fluctuation: The Case of Selected Energy Sector," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(3), pages 1-21.
    12. Tom Marty & Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn, 2020. "News media analytics in finance: a survey," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1385-1434, June.
    13. Saeed Tajdini, 2023. "The effects of internet search intensity for products on companies’ stock returns: a competitive intelligence perspective," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(3), pages 352-365, September.
    14. Ben Chamberlain & Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Lee A. Smales, 2023. "Short interest and the stock market relation with news sentiment from traditional and social media sources," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 321-334, June.
    15. Gupta, Kartick & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2019. "Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-45.
    16. Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2005. "The Market for News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1031-1053, September.
    17. Khuu, Joyce & Durand, Robert B. & Smales, Lee A., 2016. "Melancholia and Japanese stock returns – 2003 to 2012," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 424-437.
    18. Kristiansen, Kristian & Hvid, Anna Kirstine, 2020. "How news affects sectoral stock prices through earnings expectations and risk premia," Working Paper Series 2493, European Central Bank.
    19. Mariano González-Sánchez & M. Encina Morales de Vega, 2021. "Influence of Bloomberg’s Investor Sentiment Index: Evidence from European Union Financial Sector," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, February.
    20. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Mohamed Sherif & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri, 2021. "Sentiment‐Apt investors and UK sector returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3321-3351, July.
    21. Benjamin Clapham & Michael Siering & Peter Gomber, 2021. "Popular News Are Relevant News! How Investor Attention Affects Algorithmic Decision-Making and Decision Support in Financial Markets," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 477-494, April.
    22. Durand, Robert B. & Khuu, Joyce & Smales, Lee A., 2023. "Lost in translation. When sentiment metrics for one market are derived from two different languages," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    23. Frijns, Bart & Huynh, Thanh D., 2018. "Herding in analysts’ recommendations: The role of media," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-18.
    24. Felix Chan & Robert B. Durand & Joyce Khuu & Lee A. Smales, 2017. "The Validity of Investor Sentiment Proxies," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 473-477, September.
    25. John Griffith & Mohammad Najand & Jiancheng Shen, 2020. "Emotions in the Stock Market," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 42-56, January.

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