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The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP

  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate – business situation and business expectations – was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle Clock. Today similar monitoring systems are firmly established and are presented by Eurostat, the OECD and others. The German Federal Statistical Office presents the real GDP in a 4-quadrant scheme. In the following, important qualities of the Ifo Business Cycle Clock are shown. The importance of orthogonal functions for the circular correlation is examined.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2010/wp-cesifo-2010-09/cesifo1_wp3179.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3179.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3179
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  1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(05), pages 32-43, 03.
  2. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  4. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2009:i::p:34-41 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
  6. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2, October.
  7. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Months for Cyclical Dominance und ifo Geschäftsklima," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(07), pages 11-19, 04.
  8. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
  9. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, 03.
  10. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
  11. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Willi Leibfritz, 1993. "Westdeutsche Wirtschaft : wie tief ist die Rezession?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 46(07), pages 10-15, October.
  12. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Ein Präzisionswerk zur Analyse der Wirtschaft," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
  13. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
  14. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, July.
  15. Klaus Abberger, 2005. "Another Look at the Ifo Business Cycle Clock," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 431-443.
  16. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "How to Define a Recession?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(4), pages 74-76, December.
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