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The Propagation of Business Expectations within the European Union

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  • Anja Kukuvec
  • Harald Oberhofer

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the propagation of fims’ expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine EU-wide official business survey data with world input-output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input-output-linkages and apply space-time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillovers in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Kukuvec & Harald Oberhofer, 2020. "The Propagation of Business Expectations within the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 8198, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8198
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    Cited by:

    1. Harald Oberhofer & Vasily Astrov & Elisabeth Christen & Robert Stehrer, 2025. "FIW-Jahresgutachten 2025 Die österreichische Außenwirtschaft," FIW Annual Report on the Status of the Austrian External Sector series y:2025:m:02, FIW.
    2. Monique B. Reid & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "How Firms and Experts View The Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual and Aggregate Data from South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3355-3376, September.
    3. Robert Stehrer & Oliver Fritz & Yvonne Wolfmayr & Vasily Astrov & Thomas Url, 2020. "FIW-Jahresgutachten 2020 - Die österreichische Außenwirtschaft," FIW Annual Report on the Status of the Austrian External Sector series 2020-001, FIW.
    4. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business expectation formation; propagation; input-output linkages; spillovers; space-time model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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