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Has there actually been a sustained increase in the synchronization of house price (and business) cycles across countries?

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  • Miles, William

Abstract

Housing has been demonstrated to affect the macroeconomy, particularly business cycle fluctuations. Given the more globalized nature of financial and economic activity in comparison to past decades, there has been much research on how synchronized home values are across countries. This research mirrors a similar line of inquiry on business cycle movement across nations. The degree of co-movement has implications portfolio management in real estate investment, as well as for macroeconomic policy coordination across countries. In this paper, we apply a newly developed set of international house price data and utilize some recently created tools to investigate international housing and business cycle co-movement. We find that there has been no sustained increase in co-movement for either house prices or income across nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Miles, William, 2017. "Has there actually been a sustained increase in the synchronization of house price (and business) cycles across countries?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:36:y:2017:i:c:p:25-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2017.02.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Torsten Ehlers & Mathias Hoffmann & Alexander Raabe, 2020. "Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized," BIS Working Papers 897, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Jakob de Haan & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Renske Zijm, 2022. "Coherence of Output Gaps in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Covid-19 Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 9654, CESifo.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Libor Votava & Lenka Komárková & Jiří Dvořák, 2021. "Determinanty poptávky a nabídky na trhu s byty a jejich význam pro vysvětlení regionálních rozdílů [Demand and Supply Determinants on the Property Market and Their Importance in Explaining Regional," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(1), pages 26-47.
    5. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2023. "Sentiment-based indicators of real estate market stress and systemic risk: international evidence," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-382, September.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Cheng, Ruijie & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2022. "House price decoupling in East Asia and the Pacific: Trilemma versus dilemma revisited," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 518-539.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International business cycles; Housing demand;

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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