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Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized

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US net capital inows drive the international synchronization of house price growth. An increase (decrease) in US net capital inows improves (tightens) US dollar funding conditions for non-US global banks, leading them to increase (decrease) foreign lending to third-party borrowing countries. This induces a synchronization of lending across borrowing countries, which translates into an international synchronization of mortgage credit growth and, ultimately, house price growth. Importantly, this synchronization is driven by non-US global banks’ common but heterogenous exposure to US dollar funding conditions, not by the common exposure of borrowing countries to non-US global banks. Our results identify a novel channel of international transmission of US dollar funding conditions: As these conditions vary over time, borrowing country pairs whose non-US global creditor banks are more dependent on US dollar funding exhibit higher house price synchronization.

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  • Torsten Ehlers & Mathias Hoffmann & Alexander Raabe, 2020. "Non-US global banks and dollar (co-)dependence: how housing markets became internationally synchronized," IHEID Working Papers 18-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp18-2020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house price synchronization; US dollar funding; global US dollar cycle; global imbalances; capital inows; global banks; global banking network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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