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A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011

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  • Travis J. Berge
  • Òscar Jordà

Abstract

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others ?this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp11-14
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    Cited by:

    1. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2014. "Gender gaps in Spain: policies and outcomes over the last three decades," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 61-103, March.
    2. Ricci L. Reber & Sarah J. Pack, 2014. "Methods of Temporal Disaggregation for Estimating Output of the Insurance Industry," BEA Working Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    3. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    4. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 2017-98, Peruvian Economic Association.
    5. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie & Mack, Adrienne, 2015. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 170-185.
    6. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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