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A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011

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Abstract

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others ?this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.

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  • Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp11-14
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Pacella, 2020. "Essays on Forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/307579, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
    3. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2014. "Gender gaps in Spain: policies and outcomes over the last three decades," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 61-103, March.
    4. Ricci L. Reber & Sarah J. Pack, 2014. "Methods of Temporal Disaggregation for Estimating Output of the Insurance Industry," BEA Working Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    5. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    6. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 98, Peruvian Economic Association.
    7. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie & Mack, Adrienne, 2015. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 170-185.
    8. Jéfferson A. Colombo & Martinho R. Lazzari, 2020. "Same, but different? A state-level chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian economic recession and comparisons with the GFC and (early data on) COVID-19," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2445-2456.
    9. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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