IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/f/pbe546.html
   My authors  Follow this author

Travis John Berge

Personal Details

First Name:Travis
Middle Name:John
Last Name:Berge
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pbe546
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
Terminal Degree:2011 Economics Department; University of California-Davis (from RePEc Genealogy)

Affiliation

Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Washington, District of Columbia (United States)
http://www.federalreserve.gov/

:

20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
RePEc:edi:frbgvus (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles Chapters

Working papers

  1. Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Travis J. Berge & Nitish R. Sinha & Michael Smolyansky, 2016. "Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?," FEDS Notes 2016-08-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Travis J. Berge, 2013. "Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle," Research Working Paper RWP 13-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Berge, Travis, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," MPRA Paper 42392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011," Working Paper Series 2011-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 1020, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  8. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Working Papers 16491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Travis Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2009. "The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions," Working Papers 918, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

Articles

  1. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September.
  2. Berge, Travis J. & Cao, Guangye, 2014. "The global impact of U.S. monetary policy," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2, Mar 4.
  3. Berge, Travis J. & Cao, Guangye, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-31.
  4. Travis J. Berge, 2014. "Forecasting Disconnected Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 713-735, August.
  5. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
  6. Travis J. Berge, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
  7. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 357-388.
    • Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
  9. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.
  10. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.

Chapters

  1. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Wikipedia mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions (AEJ:MA 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2018. "Households’ Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: Survey Evidence from New Zealand," ifo Working Paper Series 255, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

  2. Travis J. Berge, 2013. "Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle," Research Working Paper RWP 13-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Cited by:

    1. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ng, Joe Cho Yiu, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 340, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    4. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2016. "Evaluating a Leading Indicator: An Application: the Term Spread," Working Papers 2016-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    5. Shahram Fattahi & Kiomars Sohaili & Hamed Monkaresi & Fatemeh Mehrabi, 2017. "Modelling and Forecasting Recessions in Oil-exporting Countries: The Case of Iran," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 569-574.
    6. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
    7. Davig, Troy A. & Smalter Hall, Aaron, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 01 Feb 2017.
    8. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2017. "Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-194, August.
    9. Heiberger, Raphael H., 2018. "Predicting economic growth with stock networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 489(C), pages 102-111.
    10. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees," Working Papers 2015-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    11. Stefan Gebauer, 2017. "The Use of Financial Market Variables in Forecasting," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 115, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201505, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.

  3. Berge, Travis, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," MPRA Paper 42392, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Agnieszka Domańska & Dobrmił Serwa, 2014. "Synchronizacja cykli koniunkturalnych a podatność gospodarek krajów Europy na skutki kryzysu gospodarczego 2008-2009," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.
    2. Brunhart, Andreas, 2015. "The Swiss business cycle and the lead of small neighbor Liechtenstein," EconStor Preprints 130154, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    3. Berge, Travis J. & Cao, Guangye, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-31.
    4. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia's Decoupling: Fact, Fairytale or Forecast?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344, August.
    5. Paul Gaggl & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "The Cyclical Component of Labor Market Polarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US," Working Papers 14.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    6. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia’s decoupling: fact, forecast or fiction?," BIS Working Papers 438, Bank for International Settlements.

  4. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Cited by:

    1. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Schüssler, Rainer, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 267-288.
    3. Byrne, Joseph P & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J, 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," MPRA Paper 58956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "A boosting approach to forecasting the volatility of gold-price fluctuations under flexible loss," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 95-107.
    5. Risse, Marian & Ohl, Ludwig, 2017. "Using dynamic model averaging in state space representation with dynamic Occam’s window and applications to the stock and gold market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 158-176.
    6. Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2017. "Selecting exchange rate fundamentals by bootstrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 894-914.

  5. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011," Working Paper Series 2011-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2014. "Gender gaps in Spain: policies and outcomes over the last three decades," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 61-103, March.
    2. Ricci L. Reber & Sarah J. Pack, 2014. "Methods of Temporal Disaggregation for Estimating Output of the Insurance Industry," BEA Working Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    3. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    4. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 2017-98, Peruvian Economic Association.
    5. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie & Mack, Adrienne, 2015. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 170-185.
    6. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.

  6. Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 1020, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    3. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    4. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    5. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  7. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Working Papers 16491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Bank for International Settlements, 2015. "Currency carry trades in Latin America," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 81.
    2. Shehadeh, Ali & Erdős, Péter & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of “Cheap Money”," MPRA Paper 70770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If you’re so smart: John Maynard Keynes and currency speculation in the interwar years," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64722, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim & Liu, Xiaochun, 2015. "Foreign exchange predictability during the financial crisis: implications for carry trade profitability," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Narkevich, Siarhei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble as a Regional Reserve Currency," Published Papers dok2, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    10. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    11. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim & Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Foreign exchange predictability and the carry trade: A decomposition approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-211.

  8. Travis Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2009. "The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions," Working Papers 918, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "A chronology of international business cycles through non-parametric decoding," Research Working Paper RWP 11-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Brave, Scott & Butters, R. Andrew, 2014. "Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 19-37.
    3. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    5. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Articles

  1. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September. See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Berge, Travis J. & Cao, Guangye, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-31.

    Cited by:

    1. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    2. Severin Bernhard & Till Ebner, 2016. "Cross-border Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on Swiss Asset Prices," Working Papers 2016-09, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Smith, Andrew Lee & Becker, Thealexa, 2015. "Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 57-78.
    4. Annette Meinusch, 2017. "When the Fed sneezes - Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy to Emerging Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201730, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

  3. Travis J. Berge, 2014. "Forecasting Disconnected Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 713-735, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Travis J. Berge, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 357-388.
    • Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," BIS Working Papers 421, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    6. Nyberg, Henri & Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 323-338.
    7. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Jaime Guajardo & Nkunde Mwase, 2013. "The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies; A New Hope or Back to the Future?," IMF Working Papers 13/132, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Boonman, T.M. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Kuper, G.H., 2013. "Sovereign debt crises in Latin America," Research Report 13016-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    9. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
    10. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.
    11. Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers 201463, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    13. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2013. "Confidence Bands for ROC Curves with Serially Dependent Data," Discussion Papers 13-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    15. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions; A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 11/235, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Sander, Magnus, 2018. "Market timing over the business cycle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-145.
    17. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    19. Marie Bessec, 2016. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data," Working Papers hal-01358595, HAL.
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli Segnon, 2015. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting U.S. Recessions: A Mixed-Frequency Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Papers 201558, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    21. Shahram Fattahi & Kiomars Sohaili & Hamed Monkaresi & Fatemeh Mehrabi, 2017. "Modelling and Forecasting Recessions in Oil-exporting Countries: The Case of Iran," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 569-574.
    22. Camacho, Maximo & Martinez-Martin, Jaime, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 617-625.
    23. Bluedorn, John C. & Decressin, Jörg & Terrones, Marco E., 2016. "Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 518-526.
    24. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
    25. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    26. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    27. Davig, Troy A. & Smalter Hall, Aaron, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 01 Feb 2017.
    28. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2015. "A Non-linear Forecast Combination Procedure for Binary Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 5175, CESifo Group Munich.
    29. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    30. André K. Anundsen & Karsten Gerdrup & Frank Hansen & Kasper Kragh‐Sørensen, 2016. "Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1291-1311, November.
    31. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    32. Zhongbo Jing & Jakob de Haan & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Haizhen Yang, 2013. "Identifying Banking Crises Using Money Market Pressure: New Evidence For A Large Set of Countries," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-41, CIRANO.
    33. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Malinen, Tuomas & Nyberg, Henri, 2016. "The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 161-180.
    34. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie & Mack, Adrienne, 2015. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 170-185.
    35. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
    36. Peltonen, Tuomas & Klaus, Benjamin & Duprey, Thibaut, 2015. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Working Paper Series 1873, European Central Bank.
    37. Vegard Høghaug Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2018. "Business cycle narratives," Working Papers No 6/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    38. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    39. Liu, Weiling & Moench, Emanuel, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    40. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "A quantile-boosting approach to forecasting gold returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    41. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    42. Kim Ristolainen, 2015. "Were the Scandinavian Banking Crises Predictable? A Neural Network Approach," Discussion Papers 99, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    43. Binici, Mahir & Köksal, Bülent, 2012. "Türkiye'de Aşırı Kredi Genişlemeleri ve Belirleyicileri
      [Determinants of Credit Booms in Turkey]
      ," MPRA Paper 38032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles," Working Papers No 4/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    45. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2016. "Learning from History : Volatility and Financial Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers 201732, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    47. Brave, Scott A. & Lopez, Jose A., 2017. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability," Working Paper Series 2017-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    48. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
    49. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2015. "A further analysis of the conference board’s new Leading Economic Index," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 446-453.
    50. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-36, CIRANO.
    51. Karolin Kirschenmann & Tuomas Malinen & Henri Nyberg, 2014. "The risk of financial crises: Is it in real or financial factors?," Working Papers 336, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    52. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees," Working Papers 2015-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    53. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    54. Anna Pestova, 2015. "Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle: Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 94/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    55. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    56. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201505, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    57. R. Brian Langrin & Lavern McFarlane, 2014. "Policy Implications for the Application of Countercyclical Capital Buffers When the Government Borrowing Crowds Out Private Sector Credit: The Case of Jamaica," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 285-312, July-Dece.

  8. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

  9. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.

    Cited by:

    1. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.
    2. David Lang & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep27.

Chapters

  1. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

Access and download statistics for all items

Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 8 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (7) 2010-10-30 2011-12-19 2012-02-01 2012-02-01 2013-08-05 2016-09-04 2017-04-30. Author is listed
  2. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (4) 2011-12-19 2012-02-01 2013-08-05 2017-04-30. Author is listed
  3. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (3) 2010-10-30 2012-02-01 2017-04-30. Author is listed
  4. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (2) 2012-11-17 2013-08-05. Author is listed
  5. NEP-HIS: Business, Economic & Financial History (2) 2011-12-19 2012-02-01. Author is listed
  6. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (2) 2010-10-30 2017-04-30. Author is listed
  7. NEP-FMK: Financial Markets (1) 2010-10-30
  8. NEP-IFN: International Finance (1) 2010-10-30
  9. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (1) 2012-11-17

Corrections

All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. For general information on how to correct material on RePEc, see these instructions.

To update listings or check citations waiting for approval, Travis John Berge should log into the RePEc Author Service.

To make corrections to the bibliographic information of a particular item, find the technical contact on the abstract page of that item. There, details are also given on how to add or correct references and citations.

To link different versions of the same work, where versions have a different title, use this form. Note that if the versions have a very similar title and are in the author's profile, the links will usually be created automatically.

Please note that most corrections can take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.