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Future recession risks


  • Travis J. Berge
  • Òscar Jordà


An unstable economic environment has rekindled talk of a double-dip recession. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index provides data for predicting the probability of a recession but is limited by the weight assigned to its indicators and the varying efficacy of those indicators over different time horizons. Statistical experiments with LEI data can mitigate these limitations and suggest that a recessionary relapse is a significant possibility sometime in the next two years.

Suggested Citation

  • Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:aug9:n:2010-24

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. David Card & Ethan G. Lewis, 2007. "The Diffusion of Mexican Immigrants During the 1990s: Explanations and Impacts," NBER Chapters,in: Mexican Immigration to the United States, pages 193-228 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.
    2. David Lang & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep27.

    More about this item


    Recessions ; Index numbers (Economics);


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