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Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index

  • David Lang
  • Kevin J. Lansing

The current economic recovery is proceeding at a tepid pace despite massive federal fiscal stimulus and extremely low interest rates. Forecasts derived from business cycle indicators produced by the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks predict that real U.S. GDP growth through the first half of 2011 will remain at or below potential. If these forecasts prove accurate, then the historical relationship between real GDP growth and the labor market suggests that the unemployment rate could rise by as much as 0.5 percentage point during this period.

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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-29.html
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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-29.pdf
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): sep27 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:sep27:n:2010-29
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2010. "After the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 17-60.
  2. Charles L. Evans & Chin Te Liu & Genevieve Pham-Kanter, 2002. "The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 26-43.
  3. repec:cbo:report:21670 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.
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