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Global Crises and Gold as a Safe Haven: Evidence from Over Seven and a Half Centuries of Data

Author

Listed:
  • Heni Boubaker

    () (IPAG LAB, IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France)

  • Juncal Cunado

    () (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain)

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    () (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain.)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

Using annual data spanning the period of 1258-2018, we test the safe haven characteristic of gold in the wake of global crises. We find that, when we allow for regime-switching to capture nonlinearity and structural breaks, gold serves as a strong hedge against crises, especially during the bullish regime of the market, and in particular from the post-World War I period, as suggested by a time-varying model. In comparison, silver, however, does not seem to possess the safe haven property over the historical period of 1688-2018. Finally, we also find that global crises can accurately predict real gold returns over a long-span (1302-2018) out-of-sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Heni Boubaker & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Global Crises and Gold as a Safe Haven: Evidence from Over Seven and a Half Centuries of Data," Working Papers 201941, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201941
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:105-116 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    4. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 105-116.
    6. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    9. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2019. "Gold-Oil Dependence Dynamics and the Role of Geopolitical Risks: Evidence from a Markov-Switching Time-Varying Copula Model," Working Papers 201918, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2014. "Does gold offer a better protection against losses in sovereign debt bonds than other metals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 507-521.
    11. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    12. Beckmann, Joscha & Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert, 2015. "Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-24.
    13. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Crises; Gold; Safe Haven; Regime-Switching Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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