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Global Crises and Gold as a Safe Haven: Evidence from Over Seven and a Half Centuries of Data

Author

Listed:
  • Heni Boubaker

    (IPAG LAB, IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France)

  • Juncal Cunado

    (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain)

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain.)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

Using annual data spanning the period of 1258-2018, we test the safe haven characteristic of gold in the wake of global crises. We find that, when we allow for regime-switching to capture nonlinearity and structural breaks, gold serves as a strong hedge against crises, especially during the bullish regime of the market, and in particular from the post-World War I period, as suggested by a time-varying model. In comparison, silver, however, does not seem to possess the safe haven property over the historical period of 1688-2018. Finally, we also find that global crises can accurately predict real gold returns over a long-span (1302-2018) out-of-sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Heni Boubaker & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Global Crises and Gold as a Safe Haven: Evidence from Over Seven and a Half Centuries of Data," Working Papers 201941, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201941
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Sonali Das, 2021. "Forecasting Output Growth of Advanced Economies Over Eight Centuries: The Role of Gold Market Volatility as a Proxy of Global Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_017, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "A Note on Forecasting the Historical Realized Variance of Oil-Price Movements: The Role of Gold-to-Silver and Gold-to-Platinum Price Ratios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-12, October.
    3. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Lucey, Brian M. & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Is gold a hedge or a safe-haven asset in the COVID–19 crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Assessing the safe haven property of the gold market during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Crises; Gold; Safe Haven; Regime-Switching Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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