IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tch/wpaper/cep006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gold Price Dynamics and the Role of Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Joscha Beckmann

    (University of Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics, Chair for Macroeconomics)

  • Theo Berger

    (University of Bremen, Department of Business Administration, Chair for Applied Statistics and Empirical Economy)

  • Robert Czudaj

    (Chemnitz University of Technology, Department of Economics, Chair for Empirical Economics)

Abstract

This study adopts a copula wavelet approach to analyze dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies. We also examine whether gold prices are directly affected by changes in uncertainty. Analyzing data for nine economies for a sample period starting in 1985, we find that the role of gold changes significantly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Gold is unable to serve as a hedge in the classical sense while the findings for the period prior to 2008 mostly suggest that gold is able to shield investors. Uncertainty measures display a surprising and time-varying relationship with the path of the gold price. While economic policy uncertainty is positively correlated with gold price developments, macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty among forecasters are both negatively related to gold.

Suggested Citation

  • Joscha Beckmann & Theo Berger & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Gold Price Dynamics and the Role of Uncertainty," Chemnitz Economic Papers 006, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tu-chemnitz.de/wirtschaft/vwl1/RePEc/download/tch/wpaper/CEP006_gold_price_dynamics.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blose, Laurence E., 2010. "Gold prices, cost of carry, and expected inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 35-47, January.
    2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
    3. Gallegati, Marco, 2012. "A wavelet-based approach to test for financial market contagion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3491-3497.
    4. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    5. Michis, Antonis A., 2014. "Investing in gold: Individual asset risk in the long run," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 369-374.
    6. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    7. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    9. Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2001. "Scaling properties of foreign exchange volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 249-266.
    10. Gürgün, Gözde & Ünalmış, İbrahim, 2014. "Is gold a safe haven against equity market investment in emerging and developing countries?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 341-348.
    11. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 273-282.
    12. Joscha Beckmann & Theo Berger & Robert Czudaj, 2016. "Oil price and FX-rates dependency," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 477-488, March.
    13. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    14. Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
    15. Beckmann, Joscha & Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert, 2015. "Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-24.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert & Pilbeam, Keith, 2015. "Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 292-300.
    17. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2011. "Gold and the Dollar (and the Euro, Pound, and Yen)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2070-2083, August.
    18. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "Are precious metals a hedge against exchange-rate movements? An empirical exploration using bayesian additive regression trees," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 27-38.
    19. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    20. Hood, Matthew & Malik, Farooq, 2013. "Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 47-52.
    21. Bampinas Georgios & Panagiotidis Theodore, 2015. "On the relationship between oil and gold before and after financial crisis: linear, nonlinear and time-varying causality testing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 657-668, December.
    22. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    23. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
    24. Mark, Joy, 2011. "Gold and the US dollar: Hedge or haven?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 120-131, September.
    25. Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2014. "Does gold offer a better protection against losses in sovereign debt bonds than other metals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 507-521.
    26. Baur, Dirk G. & Glover, Kristoffer J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 116-133.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    2. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    3. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    4. Risse, Marian, 2019. "Combining wavelet decomposition with machine learning to forecast gold returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 601-615.
    5. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "Are precious metals a hedge against exchange-rate movements? An empirical exploration using bayesian additive regression trees," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 27-38.
    6. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Sheng, Xin, 2018. "The effects of uncertainty measures on the price of gold," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-7.
    7. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping & Tan, David, 2022. "Gold as a financial instrument," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    8. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    9. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2017. "In search of hedges and safe havens: Revisiting the relations between gold and oil in the rolling regression framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 238-244.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert & Pilbeam, Keith, 2015. "Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 292-300.
    11. Qureshi, Saba & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Qureshi, Fiza, 2018. "Does gold act as a safe haven against exchange rate fluctuations? The case of Pakistan rupee," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 685-708.
    12. Wang, Xinya & Lucey, Brian & Huang, Shupei, 2022. "Can gold hedge against oil price movements: Evidence from GARCH-EVT wavelet modeling," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    13. Ali, Sajid & Raza, Naveed & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Le, Van, 2022. "Modelling the joint dynamics of financial assets using MGARCH family models: Insights into hedging and diversification strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Chkili, Walid, 2017. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven for Islamic stock market movements? A Markov switching approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 152-163.
    15. Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Yao, Yiran & Faff, Robert, 2016. "Diamonds vs. precious metals: What shines brightest in your investment portfolio?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Joscha Beckmann & Theo Berger & Robert Czudaj & Thi-Hong-Van Hoang, 2019. "Tail dependence between gold and sectorial stocks in China: perspectives for portfolio diversification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1117-1144, March.
    17. Cheng, Wan-Hsiu & Chen, Chun-Da & Lai, Hsiao-Pin, 2020. "Revisiting the roles of gold: Does gold ETF matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2022. "The role of precious metals in portfolio diversification during the Covid19 pandemic: A wavelet-based quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging of gold and palladium in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-377.
    20. Semeyutin, Artur & Downing, Gareth, 2022. "Co-jumps in the U.S. interest rates and precious metals markets and their implications for investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bonds; exchange rates; gold; hedge; safe haven; stocks; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwtucde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Kulitza The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Christian Kulitza to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwtucde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.