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Gold prices, cost of carry, and expected inflation

  • Blose, Laurence E.
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    How do changes in expected inflation affect gold prices? Using unexpected changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this paper shows that surprises in the CPI do not affect gold spot prices. The results indicate that investors anticipating changes in inflation expectations should design speculation strategies in the bond markets rather than the gold markets. Additionally, investors cannot determine market inflation expectations by examining the price of gold.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148-6195(09)00037-X
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.

    Volume (Year): 62 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 35-47

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:62:y:2010:i:1:p:35-47
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus

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    7. Michael Smirlock, 1986. "Inflation announcements and financial market reaction: evidence from the long-term bond market," Working Papers 86-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
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    12. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
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    17. Wayne D. Angell, 1992. "Commodity Prices and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 12(1), pages 185-192, Spring/Su.
    18. Thomas Urich & Paul Wachtel, 1984. "The Effects of Inflation and Money Supply Announcements on Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Larsen, Alan B & McQueen, Grant R, 1995. "REITs, Real Estate, and Inflation: Lessons from the Gold Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 285-97, May.
    20. Blose, Laurence E. & Shieh, Joseph C. P., 1995. "The impact of gold price on the value of gold mining stock," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 125-139.
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    22. Mahdavi, Saeid & Zhou, Su, 1997. "Gold and commodity prices as leading indicators of inflation: Tests of long-run relationship and predictive performance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 475-489.
    23. Urich, Thomas J & Wachtel, Paul, 1984. " The Effects of Inflation and Money Supply Announcements on Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1177-88, September.
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