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Are Gold and Silver a Hedge against Inflation? A Two Century Perspective

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  • G. Bampinas

    () (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece)

  • T. Panagiotidis

    () (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

Abstract

This study examines the long-run hedging ability of gold and silver prices against alternative measures of consumer price index for the UK and the US. We employ a dataset that spans from 1791 to 2010, and both a time-invariant and a time-varying cointegration framework. We find that gold can at least fully hedge headline, expected and core CPI in the long-run. This ability tends to be stronger when we allow for the long term dynamics to vary over time. The inflation hedging ability of gold is on average higher in the US compared to the UK. Silver does not hedge US consumer prices albeit evidence emerges in favor of a time-varying long-run relationship in the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Bampinas & T. Panagiotidis, 2015. "Are Gold and Silver a Hedge against Inflation? A Two Century Perspective," Working Paper series 15-02, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:15-02
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    Cited by:

    1. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Mark Wohar, 2018. "Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean," Papers 1806.07623, arXiv.org.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:88-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    4. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    5. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    6. repec:gam:jijfss:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:28-:d:118768 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Aye, Goodness C. & Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Is gold an inflation-hedge? Evidence from an interrupted Markov-switching cointegration model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 77-84.
    8. Shubhasis Dey, 2016. "Historical Events and the Gold Price," Working papers 198, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    9. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    10. Dey Shubhasis & Sampath Aravind, 2017. "Dynamic Linkages between Gold and Equity Prices: Evidence from Indian Financial Services and Information Technology Companies," Working papers 251, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    11. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christina Rouska, 2018. "Volatility persistence and asymmetry under the microscope: The role of information demand for gold and oil," Working Paper series 18-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "On the time-varying links between oil and gold: New insights from the rolling and recursive rolling approaches," Working Papers 15-35, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:eee:finlet:v:25:y:2018:i:c:p:41-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Persistence in Trends and Cycles of Gold and Silver Prices: Evidence from Historical Data," Working Papers 201816, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Kosedag, Arman & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Is the price of gold to gold mining stocks asymmetric?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 402-407.
    16. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:316-332 is not listed on IDEAS
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    19. Kumar, Satish, 2017. "On the nonlinear relation between crude oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 219-224.
    20. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:51:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0672-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2017. "In search of hedges and safe havens: Revisiting the relations between gold and oil in the rolling regression framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 238-244.
    22. repec:taf:eurjfi:v:23:y:2017:i:14:p:1390-1413 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Yao, Yiran & Faff, Robert, 2016. "Diamonds vs. precious metals: What shines brightest in your investment portfolio?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-14.
    24. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: volatility spillovers and implications for portfolio management," MPRA Paper 87637, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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