IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

  • Shafiee, Shahriar
  • Topal, Erkan
Registered author(s):

    The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBM-50B5WDN-1/2/d059267ed458f17d4db20fff1b2af058
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 178-189

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:3:p:178-189
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Rockerbie, Duane W., 1999. "Gold prices and gold production: Evidence for South Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 69-76, June.
    2. Parisi, Antonino & Parisi, Franco & Díaz, David, 2008. "Forecasting gold price changes: Rolling and recursive neural network models," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 477-487, December.
    3. Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006. "Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
    4. Blose, Laurence E., 1996. "Gold price risk and the returns on gold mutual funds," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 499-513, December.
    5. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 988-1000, March.
    6. Batchelor, Roy & Gulley, David, 1995. "Jewellery demand and the price of gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-42, March.
    7. S. James Press, 1967. "A Compound Events Model for Security Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 317.
    8. Mueller, Michael J. & Gorin, Daniel R., 1985. "Informative trends in natural resource commodity prices: A comment on slade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-95, March.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Robert D. Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2003. "Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 10171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Selvanathan, Saroja & Selvanathan, E. A., 1999. "The effect of the price of gold on its production: a time-series analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 265-275, December.
    11. Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al, 1995. " Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices: Evidence from the Futures Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 361-75, March.
    12. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2009. "When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 181-189, January.
    13. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2008. "An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 775-786, February.
    14. Slade, Margaret E., 1985. "Noninformative trends in natural resource commodity prices: U-shaped price paths exonerated," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 181-192, June.
    15. Mills, Terence C., 2004. "Statistical analysis of daily gold price data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(3), pages 559-566.
    16. Neill Fortune, J., 1987. "The inflation rate of the price of gold, expected prices and interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 71-82.
    17. Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
    18. David G. Laughton & Henry D. Jacoby, 1993. "Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    19. Laulajainen, Risto, 1990. "Gold price round the clock : Technical and fundamental issues," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-152, June.
    20. Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996. "Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
    21. Brian Lucey & Raj Aggarwal, 2005. "Psychological Barriers in Gold Prices," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp053, IIIS.
    22. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
    23. Govett, M. H. & Govett, G. J. S., 1982. "Gold demand and supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 84-96, June.
    24. Slade, Margaret E., 1988. "Grade selection under uncertainty: Least cost last and other anomalies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 189-205, June.
    25. Kaufmann, Thomas D. & Winters, Richard A., 1989. "The price of gold : A simple model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 309-313, December.
    26. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
    27. Mahdavi, Saeid & Zhou, Su, 1997. "Gold and commodity prices as leading indicators of inflation: Tests of long-run relationship and predictive performance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 475-489.
    28. Tully, Edel & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "A power GARCH examination of the gold market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 316-325, June.
    29. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    30. Blose, Laurence E. & Shieh, Joseph C. P., 1995. "The impact of gold price on the value of gold mining stock," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 125-139.
    31. Varela, Oscar, 1999. "Futures and realized cash or settle prices for gold, silver, and copper," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 121-138.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:3:p:178-189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.