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Oscillatory Versus Quadratic Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices

  • Antonios Antypas

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus)

  • Phoebe Koundouri
  • Nikolaos Kourogenis


    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus.)

In this paper we introduce a model for the description of natural resources�� price paths, which in contrast to the existing literature, captures non-linear trends by means of a simple trigonometric function. We then use a set of model selection criteria to compare our trigonometric trend model with Slade��s (1982) quadratic trend model, as well as a more general one, that nests both of these models. We estimate the models using price series of the main fuel and metal resources prices, analyzed by the relevant literature, and ��nd that in most cases the trigonometric trend model is selected as the one better ��tting the data. Our results have implications for the long-run projection of natural resources prices and, consequently, for the relevance of the Hotelling rule.

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Paper provided by Athens University of Economics and Business in its series DEOS Working Papers with number 1305.

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Date of creation: 19 Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1305
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  1. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  2. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July.
  3. Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark C. Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," Working Papers 05-20, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  4. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
  6. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
  7. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-25, December.
  8. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-61, October.
  9. Robert M. Solow & Frederic Y. Wan, 1976. "Extraction Costs in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 359-370, Autumn.
  10. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
  11. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
  12. Mueller, Michael J. & Gorin, Daniel R., 1985. "Informative trends in natural resource commodity prices: A comment on slade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-95, March.
  13. Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996. "Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
  14. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
  15. Slade, Margaret E., 1988. "Grade selection under uncertainty: Least cost last and other anomalies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 189-205, June.
  16. Smith, V Kerry, 1979. "Natural Resource Scarcity: A Statistical Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 423-27, August.
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