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Testing for common deterministic trend slopes

Listed author(s):
  • Vogelsang, Timothy J.
  • Franses, Philip Hans

We propose tests for hypotheses on the parameter for deterministic trends. The model framework assumes a multivarariat stucture for trend-stationary time series variables. We derive the asymptotic theory and provide some relevant critical values. Monte Carlo simulations suggest which tests are more useful in practice than others. We apply our tests to examine if monthly temperatures in the Netherlands, measured from 1706 onwards, have a trend and if these trends are the same across months. We find that the January and March temperatures have the same upward trend, that the September temperature has decreased and that the temperatures in the other months do not have a trend. Hence, only winters in the Netherlands seem to get warmer.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 126 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 1-24

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:126:y:2005:i:1:p:1-24
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Fomby, Tom & Vogelsang, Tim, 2000. "The Application of Size Robust Trend Analysis to Global Warming Temperature Series," Working Papers 00-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
  3. Timothy J. Vogelsang & Marc Tomljanovich, 2002. "Are U.S. regions converging? Using new econometric methods to examine old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 49-62.
  4. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
  5. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 184-200, May.
  6. D'Andrade, Kendall, 1992. "The End of an Era," Business Ethics Quarterly, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 379-389, July.
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  8. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang & Helle Bunzel, 2000. "Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 695-714, May.
  9. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 2002. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Standard Errors Using The Bartlett Kernel Without Truncation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 2093-2095, September.
  10. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
  11. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
  12. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
  13. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
  14. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2002. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing Using Bandwidth Equal To Sample Size," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1350-1366, December.
  15. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
  16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  17. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
  18. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
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