IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ibm/ibmecp/wpe_290.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tests for Multiple Breaks in the Trend with Stationary or Integrated Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Sobreira, Nuno
  • Nunes, Luis C.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose new tests of the presence of multiple breaks in the trend of a univariate time†series where the number and dates of the breaks are unknown and that are valid in the presence of stationary or unit root shocks. These tests can also be used to sequentially estimate the number of breaks. The behaviour of the proposed tests is studied through Monte Carlo experiments.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from anothe
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Sobreira, Nuno & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "Tests for Multiple Breaks in the Trend with Stationary or Integrated Shocks," Insper Working Papers wpe_290, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_290
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.insper.edu.br/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2012_wpe290.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Franses, Philip Hans, 2005. "Testing for common deterministic trend slopes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Nuno Sobreira & Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Characterizing Economic Growth Paths Based On New Structural Change Tests," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 845-861, April.
    3. Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 381-394, October.
    4. Charles I. Jones, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525.
    5. Ozgen Sayginsoy & Tim Vogelsang, 2004. "Powerful Tests of Structural Change That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation," Discussion Papers 04-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    6. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
    7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    8. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae‐Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares‐Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, May.
    9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    10. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Simple, Robust, And Powerful Tests Of The Breaking Trend Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 995-1029, August.
    11. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, September.
    12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    13. Sungju Chun & Pierre Perron, 2013. "Comparisons of robust tests for shifts in trend with an application to trend deviations of real exchange rates in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3512-3528, August.
    14. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    15. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    16. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    18. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    19. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    20. Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wymer, C. R., 1992. "Gaussian estimation of a second order continuous time macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 313-351, October.
    21. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    22. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    23. Prodan, Ruxandra, 2008. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes With an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 50-65, January.
    24. Nowman, K B, 1998. "Econometric Estimation of a Continuous Time Macroeconomic Model of the United Kingdom with Segmented Trends," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 243-254, December.
    25. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Sobreira & Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Characterizing Economic Growth Paths Based On New Structural Change Tests," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 845-861, April.
    2. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Are coffee farmers worse off in the long run?," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311084, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    3. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    4. Arsova, Antonia & Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2021. "A panel cointegrating rank test with structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 107-129.
    5. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2019. "Do international primary commodity prices exhibit asymmetric adjustment?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 40-50.
    6. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "Is technology still a major driver of health expenditure in the United States? Evidence from cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 29-50, March.
    7. Anton Skrobotov, 2014. "A simple modification of the Busetti-Harvey stationarity tests with structural breaks at unknown time," Working Papers 0102, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2014.
    8. Atanu Ghoshray & Sushil Mohan, 2021. "Coffee price dynamics: an analysis of the retail-international price margin [Commodity dependence and development: suggestions to tackle the commodities problem]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(4), pages 983-1006.
    9. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2022. "Trends and persistence of farm-gate coffee prices around the world," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321166, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    10. Atanu Ghoshray & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2020. "Economic integration and the distribution of income in Europe: A between country analysis," Working Papers 2020/11, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    11. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    2. Nuno Sobreira & Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Characterizing Economic Growth Paths Based On New Structural Change Tests," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 845-861, April.
    3. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    4. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    5. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    7. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    8. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    9. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 140-167.
    10. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    12. Jeng-Bau Lin & Chin-Chia Liang & Wei Tsai, 2019. "Nonlinear Relationships between Oil Prices and Implied Volatilities: Providing More Valuable Information," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    13. Atanu Ghoshray & Issam Malki & Javier Ordóñez, 2022. "On the long-run dynamics of income and wealth inequality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 375-408, February.
    14. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 342-358, August.
    15. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    16. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    17. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    18. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "Instability tests in cointegration relationships. An application to the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 783-799, November.
    19. Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1588, December.
    20. Xu, Ke-Li, 2016. "Multivariate trend function testing with mixed stationary and integrated disturbances," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 38-57.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Naercio Menezes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibmecbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.