When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?
Crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that "when non-renewable energy will be diminished" is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. This paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In the Econometrics model, the main exogenous variables affecting oil, coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006. The models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption, while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price. The econometrics model for coal reserves, however, expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price. Consequently, huge reserves of coal and low-level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future, under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac & Ugurlu, Berkin, 2006. "Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3836-3846, December.
- Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2008. "An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 775-786, February.
- Demirbas, Ayhan, 2008. "Importance of biomass energy sources for Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 834-842, February.
- Khadse, Anil & Qayyumi, Mohammed & Mahajani, Sanjay & Aghalayam, Preeti, 2007. "Underground coal gasification: A new clean coal utilization technique for India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2061-2071.
- Kelly-Yong, Tau Len & Lee, Keat Teong & Mohamed, Abdul Rahman & Bhatia, Subhash, 2007. "Potential of hydrogen from oil palm biomass as a source of renewable energy worldwide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5692-5701, November.
- Mason, James E., 2007. "World energy analysis: H2 now or later?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1315-1329, February.
- Radetzki, Marian, 2002. "What will happen to the producer prices for fossil fuels if Kyoto is implemented?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 357-369, April.
- Asif, M. & Muneer, T., 2007. "Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(7), pages 1388-1413, September.
- Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
- Grubb, Michael, 2001. "Who's afraid of atmospheric stabilisation? Making the link between energy resources and climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 837-845, September.
- Lior, Noam, 2008. "Energy resources and use: The present situation and possible paths to the future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 842-857.
- Salameh, Mamdouh G., 2003. "Can renewable and unconventional energy sources bridge the global energy gap in the 21st century?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(1-2), pages 33-42, May.
- Klass, Donald L., 2003. "A critical assessment of renewable energy usage in the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 353-367, March.
- Chedid, R. & Kobrosly, M. & Ghajar, R., 2007. "A supply model for crude oil and natural gas in the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2096-2109, April.
- Adnan Shihab-Eldin & Mohamed Hamel & Garry Brennand, 2004. "Oil outlook to 2025," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(3), pages 155-205, 09.
- Goldemberg, Jose, 2006. "The promise of clean energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2185-2190, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:181-189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.