IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2011inov.14n2011-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future recession risks: an update

Author

Abstract

In 2010, statistical experiments based on components of the Conference Board?s Leading Economic Index showed a significant possibility of a U.S. recession over a 24-month period. Since then, the European sovereign debt crisis has aggravated international threats to the U.S. economy. Moreover, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami demonstrated that the U.S. economy is vulnerable to outside disruptions. Updated forecasts suggest that the probability of a U.S. recession has remained elevated and may have increased over the past year, in part because of foreign financial and economic crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:nov.14:n:2011-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-35.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-35.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ravazzolo Francesco & Rothman Philip, 2016. "Oil-price density forecasts of US GDP," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 441-453, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Lang & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep27.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recessions;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:nov.14:n:2011-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.