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Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?

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  • Berge, Travis

Abstract

The past 30 years have been witness to an inexorable change in the degree to which economies are connected internationally. At the same time, the 2007-2008 recession was the first ‘global recession’ in decades. This article explores how international trade and cross-border holdings financial assets impact the synchronization of business cycles internationally. The paper begins by producing chronologies of business cycle turning points for a group of 32 major economies covering 40 years of history. With these chronologies in hand, we document the degree of bilateral business cycle synchronization, relating cross-country differences in synchronization to bilateral trade and financial linkages. The analysis confirms that countries with deep trade linkages tend to experience similar business cycle fluctuations. However, we find no such relationship for financial linkages.

Suggested Citation

  • Berge, Travis, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," MPRA Paper 42392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42392
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    Cited by:

    1. Agnieszka Domańska & Dobrmił Serwa, 2014. "Synchronizacja cykli koniunkturalnych a podatność gospodarek krajów Europy na skutki kryzysu gospodarczego 2008-2009," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.
    2. Andreas Brunhart, 2015. "The Swiss Business Cycle and the Lead of Small Neighbor Liechtenstein," Arbeitspapiere 51, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    3. Paul Gaggl & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "The Cyclical Component of Labor Market Polarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US," Working Papers 14.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    4. Berge, Travis J. & Cao, Guangye, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-31.
    5. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia's Decoupling: Fact, Fairytale or Forecast?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344, August.
    6. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia’s decoupling: fact, forecast or fiction?," BIS Working Papers 438, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization; international business cycle synchronization;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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