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Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate

Author

Listed:
  • Travis J. Berge

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)

Abstract

A factor stochastic volatility model estimates the common component to output gap estimates produced by the staff of the Federal Reserve, its time-varying volatility, and time-varying, horizon-specific forecast uncertainty. The output gap estimates are uncertain even well after the fact. Nevertheless, the common component is clearly procyclical, and positive innovations to the common component produce movements in macroeconomic variables consistent with an increase in aggregate demand. Heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by the common component's volatility, leads to persistently negative economic responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Travis J. Berge, 2023. "Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1191-1206, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:105:y:2023:i:5:p:1191-1206
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01102
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bauer & Travis J. Berge & Giuseppe Fiori & Francesca Loria & Molin Zhong, 2025. "Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2025-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Andrea Stella, 2024. "The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 1065-1081, September.
    3. Andrew B. Martinez & Alexander D. Schibuola & David Beckworth, 2026. "The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 22(2), pages 525-557, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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