IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kof/wpskof/08-190.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe

Author

Abstract

This paper estimates forward-looking Taylor rules for the euro area. Using the asymmetries in inflation and cyclical output developments across countries, we investigate the adequacy of the single monetary policy for each of the European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries. Notable differences emerge across the countries. Taking a euro area perspective, we also show that it depends upon the underlying country weighting scheme in the monetary decision process of the ECB whether or not there has been a synchronisation of business and inflation cycles among the EMU member countries over the years. Finally, we produce an estimate of the actual policy weights the ECB has implicitly attached to each of the member countries. Developments in small member countries have received more than proportional weights in actual monetary policy decisions of the ECB.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:08-190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005552299
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evan Tanner, 2001. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-2.
    2. Helge Berger & Till Mueller, 2007. "How should large and small countries be represented in a currency union?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 471-484, September.
    3. Helge Berger, 2006. "Optimal central bank design: Benchmarks for the ECB," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 207-235, September.
    4. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention in Interdependent Economies: A Two-Country Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 72-82, February.
    5. Garnier, Julien & Wilhelmsen, Björn-Roger, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation," Working Paper Series 546, European Central Bank.
    6. Helge Berger & Jakob Haan, 2002. "Are small countries too powerful within the ECB?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 263-282, September.
    7. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
    8. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation," Working Paper 2005/14, Norges Bank.
    9. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA.
    10. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2007. "Taylor Rules And Interest Rate Smoothing In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 1-16, January.
    11. Meade, Ellen E & Sheets, D Nathan, 2005. "Regional Influences on FOMC Voting Patterns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 661-677, August.
    12. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-348.
    13. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. André Van Poeck & Jacques Vanneste & Maret Veiner, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Exchange Market Pressure in the New EU Member States," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 459-485, June.
    15. Malcolm D. Knight & Chair, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-371.
    16. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    17. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, August.
    18. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55.
    19. Jondeau, Eric & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2008. "Testing heterogeneity within the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 192-196, April.
    20. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    21. Friedrich Heinemann & Felix P. Huefner, 2004. "Is The View From The Eurotower Purely European? - National Divergence And Ecb Interest Rate Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 544-558, September.
    22. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
    23. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    24. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    25. English William B. & Nelson William R. & Sack Brian P., 2003. "Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, April.
    26. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Comparing monetary policy reaction functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 645-662, September.
    27. Paolo Surico, 2003. "Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 44-57.
    28. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    30. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
    31. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2006. "The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 175-195, April.
    32. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
    33. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1993. "Testing Identifiability and Specification in Instrumental Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 222-240, April.
    34. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2004. "Empirical Estimates of Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(I), pages 37-66, March.
    35. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
    36. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    37. Gebhard Flaig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1937, CESifo Group Munich.
    38. Jakob de Haan & Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Sandra Waller, 2005. "The European Central Bank: Credibility, Transparency, and Centralization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262042266, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Alexander & Latsos, Sophia, 2015. "Do federal reserve bank presidents have a regional bias?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 173-183.
    2. Tanya Molodtsova & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & David H. Papell, 2011. "Taylor Rules and the Euro," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 535-552, March.
    3. Grüner, Hans Peter, 2010. "Why EMU is not a failure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-11, March.
    4. Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2010. "In or out? The welfare costs of EMU membership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 585-594, March.
    5. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2013. "Behind closed doors: Revealing the ECB's decision rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 135-160.
    6. Pawel Gajewski, 2014. "Monetary policy stress in EMU during the moderation and the global crisis," Lodz Economics Working Papers 2/2014, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    7. Zuzanna Urbanowicz, 2015. "Nieadekwatność polityki pieniężnej Europejskiego Banku Centralnego w procesie stabilizacji makroekonomicznej w strefie euro," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 5-25.
    8. Cancelo, José Ramón & Varela, Diego & Sánchez-Santos, José Manuel, 2011. "Interest rate setting at the ECB: Individual preferences and collective decision making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 804-820.
    9. Bernd Hayo & Guillaume Méon, 2012. "Why Countries Matter for Monetary Policy Decision-Making in the ESCB," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 21-26, April.
    10. Lee, Jim & Crowley, Patrick M., 2009. "Evaluating the stresses from ECB monetary policy in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 11/2009, Bank of Finland.
    11. Nils aus dem Moore, 2010. "Eine Wirtschaftsregierung für Europa? – Die EU braucht bessere governance, aber kein gouvernement économique," RWI Positionen, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 24, December.
    12. Mykhaylova Olena, 2011. "Welfare Implications of Regional Asymmetries in a Monetary Union," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-43, December.
    13. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:12:p:30-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Badinger, Harald & Nitsch, Volker, 2014. "National representation in supranational institutions: The case of the European Central Bank," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 19-33.
    15. Muchlinski, Elke, 2010. "Metaphern, Begriffe und Bedeutungen: Das Beispiel internationale monetäre Institutionen," Discussion Papers 2010/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    16. aus dem Moore, Nils, 2010. "Eine Wirtschaftsregierung für Europa? Die EU braucht bessere governance, aber kein gouvernement économique," RWI Positionen 41, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    17. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "Die Geldpolitik der EZB in der Klemme – kann mehr »Forward Guidance« helfen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(22), pages 35-45, November.
    18. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stress for Fed District Representatives," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 156-176, May.
    19. Marcus Drometer & Thomas Siemsen & Sebastian Watzka, 2013. "The Monetary Policy of the ECB: A Robin Hood Approach?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4178, CESifo Group Munich.
    20. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "Die Europäische Währungsunion und der Verlust einer eigenständigen Geldpolitik," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 2(4), pages 35-43, December.
    21. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "How Large Is the Stress from the Common Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100341, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "Is it really more dispersed? Measuring and comparing the stress from the common monetary policy in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2014/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    23. repec:zbw:rwipos:041 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; monetary policy; ECB; stress; business cycle synchronisation;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:08-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/koethch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.