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Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Enrico Berkes

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Olivier Deschênes

    (University of California, Santa Barbara, IZA, and NBER)

  • Ruben Gaetani

    (University of Toronto)

  • Jeffrey Lin

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

  • Christopher Severen

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Abstract

Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large U.S. cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and they recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge spillovers, NPIs adopted during the pandemic may have preserved other inventive factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Berkes & Olivier Deschênes & Ruben Gaetani & Jeffrey Lin & Christopher Severen, 2025. "Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 853-863, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:107:y:2025:i:3:p:853-863
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01289
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Ketter & Todd Morris & Lizi Yu, 2025. "A new equilibrium: COVID-19 lockdowns and WFH persistence," Papers 2506.16671, arXiv.org.
    2. Correia, Sergio & Luck, Stephan & Verner, Emil, 2022. "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 917-957, December.
    3. Gopal Das & Shailendra Pratap Jain & Durairaj Maheswaran & Rebecca J. Slotegraaf & Raji Srinivasan, 2021. "Pandemics and marketing: insights, impacts, and research opportunities," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 835-854, September.
    4. Dahl, Christian Møller & Hansen, Casper Worm & Jensen, Peter Sandholdt & Karlsson, Martin & Kühnle, Daniel, 2023. "School Closures, Mortality, and Human Capital: Evidence from the Universe of Closures during the 1918 Pandemic in Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 18399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Hiroyasu Inoue & Kentaro Nakajima & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "Controlling Funds Allocation for the War: The Experience of Japan in the Late 1930s," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1192, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang, 2022. "Innovation in times of Covid-19," Papers 2212.14159, arXiv.org.
    7. Hou, Wenxuan & Li, Mao & Main, Brian G.M. & Liu, Xiaofan, 2023. "Pandemics and financial development: A lesson from the 1918 influenza pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Hiroyasu Inoue & Kentaro Nakajima & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "The Role of Face-to-face Contact on Innovation: Evidence from the Spanish Flu Pandemic in Japan," CIGS Working Paper Series 22-007E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    9. Heinrich, Torsten & Yang, Jangho, 2022. "Innovation in times of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 115809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ketter, Laura & Morris, Todd & Yu, Lizi, 2025. "A New Equilibrium: COVID-19 Lockdowns and WFH Persistence," IZA Discussion Papers 17975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang, 2022. "Innovation in times of Covid-19," Chemnitz Economic Papers 058, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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