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Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

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Abstract

Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large US cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge spillovers, NPIs adopted during the pandemic may have better preserved other inventive factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Berkes & Olivier Deschênes & Ruben Gaetani & Jeffrey Lin & Christopher Severen, 2020. "Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic," Working Papers 20-46, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:89113
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.46
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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroyasu Inoue & Kentaro Nakajima & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "The Role of Face-to-face Contact on Innovation: Evidence from the Spanish Flu Pandemic in Japan," CIGS Working Paper Series 22-007E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    2. Laura Ketter & Todd Morris & Lizi Yu, 2025. "A new equilibrium: COVID-19 lockdowns and WFH persistence," Papers 2506.16671, arXiv.org.
    3. Correia, Sergio & Luck, Stephan & Verner, Emil, 2022. "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 917-957, December.
    4. Heinrich, Torsten & Yang, Jangho, 2022. "Innovation in times of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 115809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gopal Das & Shailendra Pratap Jain & Durairaj Maheswaran & Rebecca J. Slotegraaf & Raji Srinivasan, 2021. "Pandemics and marketing: insights, impacts, and research opportunities," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 835-854, September.
    6. Ketter, Laura & Morris, Todd & Yu, Lizi, 2025. "A New Equilibrium: COVID-19 Lockdowns and WFH Persistence," IZA Discussion Papers 17975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Dahl, Christian Møller & Hansen, Casper Worm & Jensen, Peter Sandholdt & Karlsson, Martin & Kühnle, Daniel, 2023. "School Closures, Mortality, and Human Capital: Evidence from the Universe of Closures during the 1918 Pandemic in Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 18399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Hiroyasu Inoue & Kentaro Nakajima & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "Controlling Funds Allocation for the War: The Experience of Japan in the Late 1930s," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1192, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang, 2022. "Innovation in times of Covid-19," Papers 2212.14159, arXiv.org.
    10. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang, 2022. "Innovation in times of Covid-19," Chemnitz Economic Papers 058, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
    11. Hou, Wenxuan & Li, Mao & Main, Brian G.M. & Liu, Xiaofan, 2023. "Pandemics and financial development: A lesson from the 1918 influenza pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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