IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v92y2022ics0166046221001125.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Cerqua, Augusto
  • Letta, Marco

Abstract

This paper assesses the pandemic's impact on Italian local economies with the newly developed machine learning control method for counterfactual building. Our results document that the economic effects of the COVID-19 shock vary dramatically across the Italian territory and are spatially uncorrelated with the epidemiological pattern of the first wave. The largest employment losses occurred in areas characterized by high exposure to social aggregation risks and pre-existing labor market fragilities. Lastly, we show that the hotspots of the COVID-19 crisis do not overlap with those of the Great Recession. These findings call for a place-based policy response to address the uneven economic geography of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2022. "Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:92:y:2022:i:c:s0166046221001125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046221001125
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103752?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7rx7t91p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    3. Adam Sheridan & Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen, 2020. "Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(34), pages 20468-20473, August.
    4. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie, 2022. "Macroeconomic dynamics and reallocation in an epidemic: evaluating the ‘Swedish solution’," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(110), pages 341-398.
    5. Teresa Barbieri & Gaetano Basso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "Italian Workers at Risk During the COVID-19 Epidemic," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(1), pages 175-195, March.
    6. Jon Kleinberg & Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan & Ziad Obermeyer, 2015. "Prediction Policy Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 491-495, May.
    7. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2020. "Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Michael Stepner & Opportunity Insights Team & Camille Baker & Harvey Barnhard & Matt Bell & Gregory Bruich & Tina Chelidze & Lucas Chu & Westley Cineus & Sebi Devlin-Fol, 2024. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 829-889.
    9. Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Radost Holler & Lena Janys & Bettina Siflinger & Christian Zimpelmann, 2020. "Labour supply in the early stages of the CoViD-19 Pandemic: Empirical Evidence on hours, home office, and expectations," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 005, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    10. Dirk Kruger & Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie, 2020. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic," Working Papers 2020-43, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    11. Hansen, Stephen & Carvalho, Vasco & García, Juan Ramón & Ortiz, Alvaro & Rodrigo, Tomasa & Rodríguez Mora, José V & Ruiz, Pep, 2020. "Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 14642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    13. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Penciakova, Veronika & Sander, Nick, 2022. "Estimating SME Failures in Real Time: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 15323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2020. "From the lockdown to the new normal: An analysis of the limitations to individual mobility in Italy following the Covid-19 crisis," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2020-07, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Oct 2020.
    15. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. David BENATIA, 2020. "Reaching New Lows? The Pandemic's Consequences for Electricity Markets," Working Papers 2020-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. David Bailey & Jennifer Clark & Alessandra Colombelli & Carlo Corradini & Lisa De Propris & Ben Derudder & Ugo Fratesi & Michael Fritsch & John Harrison & Madeleine Hatfield & Tom Kemeny & Dieter F. K, 2020. "Regions in a time of pandemic," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 1163-1174, September.
    18. Benatia, David & Billette de Villemeur, Etienne, 2019. "Strategic Reneging in Sequential Imperfect Markets," MPRA Paper 105280, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2020.
    19. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2021. "A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    20. Stefan Wager & Susan Athey, 2018. "Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(523), pages 1228-1242, July.
    21. Francesca Carta & Marta De Philippis, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 shock on labour income inequality: evidence from Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 606, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    22. Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido Imbens & Khashayar Khosravi, 2021. "Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1716-1730, October.
    23. Haiqiang Chen & Wenlan Qian & Qiang Wen, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumption: Learning from High-Frequency Transaction Data," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 307-311, May.
    24. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 0. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    25. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    26. Nicholas Bloom & Robert S. Fletcher & Ethan Yeh, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on US Firms," NBER Working Papers 28314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Jan Abrell & Mirjam Kosch & Sebastian Rausch, 2019. "How Effective Was the UK Carbon Tax? — A Machine Learning Approach to Policy Evaluation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/317, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    28. Andrea Ascani & Alessandra Faggian & Sandro Montresor, 2021. "The geography of COVID‐19 and the structure of local economies: The case of Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 407-441, March.
    29. Fiona Burlig & Christopher Knittel & David Rapson & Mar Reguant & Catherine Wolfram, 2020. "Machine Learning from Schools about Energy Efficiency," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1181-1217.
    30. Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Guido Imbens & Zhaonan Qu, 2019. "Ensemble Methods for Causal Effects in Panel Data Settings," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 65-70, May.
    31. Buchheim Lukas & Krolage Carla & Link Sebastian, 2022. "Sudden stop: When did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 79-119, February.
    32. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & John Grigsby & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Erik Hurst & Christopher Johann Kurz & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession," Working Papers 2020-58_Revision, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    33. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    34. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    35. A. Belloni & V. Chernozhukov & I. Fernández‐Val & C. Hansen, 2017. "Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High‐Dimensional Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 233-298, January.
    36. Andini, Monica & Ciani, Emanuele & de Blasio, Guido & D'Ignazio, Alessio & Salvestrini, Viola, 2018. "Targeting with machine learning: An application to a tax rebate program in Italy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 86-102.
    37. Raj Chetty & John N Friedman & Michael Stepner & Opportunity Insights Team & Camille Baker & Harvey Barnhard & Matt Bell & Gregory Bruich & Tina Chelidze & Lucas Chu & Westley Cineus & Sebi Devlin-Fol, 2024. "The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 829-889.
    38. Jake M. Hofman & Duncan J. Watts & Susan Athey & Filiz Garip & Thomas L. Griffiths & Jon Kleinberg & Helen Margetts & Sendhil Mullainathan & Matthew J. Salganik & Simine Vazire & Alessandro Vespignani, 2021. "Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7866), pages 181-188, July.
    39. Hal R. Varian, 2014. "Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    40. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoe Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(30), pages 17656-17666, July.
    41. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    42. Sedláček, Petr, 2020. "Lost generations of firms and aggregate labor market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 16-31.
    43. Nicola Rossi & Alberto Mingardi, 2020. "Italy and COVID‐19: Winning the war, losing the peace?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 148-154, June.
    44. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Robert Joyce & Xiaowei Xu, 2020. "COVID‐19 and Inequalities," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 291-319, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Małgorzata Dziembała, 2021. "The Enhancement of Sustainable Competitiveness of the CEE Regions at the Time of the COVID-19 Pandemic Instability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Resce, Giuliano & Vaquero-Piñeiro, Cristina, 2022. "Predicting agri-food quality across space: A Machine Learning model for the acknowledgment of Geographical Indications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Viviana Celli & Augusto Cerqua & Guido Pellegrini, 2023. "The long-term effects of mass layoffs: do local economies (ever) recover?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1121-1144.
    4. Delogu, Marco & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Paolini, Dimitri & Resce, Giuliano, 2024. "Predicting dropout from higher education: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Cerqua, Augusto & Ferrante, Chiara & Letta, Marco, 2023. "Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Batalha, Mafalda & Gonçalves, Duarte & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "The virus that devastated tourism: The impact of covid-19 on the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Lorena Skufi & Adam Geršl, 2023. "Using Macrofinancial Models to Simulate Macroeconomic Developments During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Albania," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(5), pages 517-553, September.
    8. Gert Bijnens & Shyngys Karimov & Jozef Konings, 2023. "Does Automatic Wage Indexation Destroy Jobs? A Machine Learning Approach," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 85-117, March.
    9. Resce, Giuliano & Vaquero-Piñeiro, Cristina, 2023. "Taste of home: Birth town bias in Geographical Indications," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp23089, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    10. Erika Poggiali & Enrico Fabrizi & Davide Bastoni & Teresa Iannicelli & Claudia Galluzzo & Chiara Canini & Maria Grazia Cillis & Davide Giulio Ponzi & Andrea Magnacavallo & Andrea Vercelli, 2022. "From the Triage to the Intermediate Area: A Simple and Fast Model for COVID-19 in the Emergency Department," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-14, June.
    11. Denis Fernandes Alves & Raul da Mota Silveira & Andre Luis Squarize Chagas & Tatiane Almeida de Menezes, 2024. "Contagion by COVID-19 in the Cities: Commuting distance and Residential Density matter?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_07, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    12. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2020. "Local economies amidst the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: a tale of diverging trajectories," MPRA Paper 104404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," NBER Working Papers 28233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Daniel Graeber & Alexander S. Kritikos & Johannes Seebauer, 2021. "COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1187, October.
    5. Kubota, So & Onishi, Koichiro & Toyama, Yuta, 2021. "Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotzé & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2023. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 149-188, July.
    7. Gert Bijnens & Shyngys Karimov & Jozef Konings, 2023. "Does Automatic Wage Indexation Destroy Jobs? A Machine Learning Approach," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 85-117, March.
    8. Arceo-Gomez, Eva O. & Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Esquivel, Gerardo & Alcaraz, Eduardo & Martinez, Luis A. & Lopez, Norma G., 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 infection on labor outcomes of Mexican formal workers," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    9. Gu, Ran & Zhong, Ling, 2023. "Effects of stay-at-home orders on skill requirements in vacancy postings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Humphries, John Eric & Neilson, Christopher A. & Ulyssea, Gabriel, 2020. "Information frictions and access to the Paycheck Protection Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    11. George, Ammu & Li, Changtai & Lim, Jing Zhi & Xie, Taojun, 2021. "From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    12. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Hensvik, Lena & Le Barbanchon, Thomas & Rathelot, Roland, 2021. "Job search during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    14. Lena Anayi & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Gregory Thwaites & Ivan Yotzov, 2022. "Firming up price inflation," POID Working Papers 058, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Bennedsen, Morten & Larsen, Birthe & Schmutte, Ian & Scur, Daniela, 2020. "Preserving job matches during the COVID-19 pandemic: firm-level evidence on the role of government aid," GLO Discussion Paper Series 588, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Seung Jin Cho & Jun Yeong Lee & John V. Winters, 2021. "Employment impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic across metropolitan status and size," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 1958-1996, December.
    17. Carmen Aina & Irene Brunetti & Chiara Mussida & Sergio Scicchitano, 2023. "Distributional effects of COVID-19," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(1), pages 221-256, March.
    18. Zhou, Ye & Huang, Difang & Chen, Muzi & Wang, Yunlong & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2024. "How did small business respond to unexpected shocks? Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    19. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    20. Melanie Koch & Thomas Scheiber, 2022. "Mitigating the impact of the pandemic on personal finances in CESEE: descriptive evidence for 2020," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/22, pages 63-96.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impact evaluation; Counterfactual approach; Machine learning; Local labor markets; COVID-19; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:92:y:2022:i:c:s0166046221001125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.