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Sudden stop: When did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?

Author

Listed:
  • Buchheim Lukas

    (TU Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany)

  • Krolage Carla

    (123151 LMU Munich, Munich, Germany)

  • Link Sebastian

    (123148 ifo Institute, Munich, Germany)

Abstract

COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only at the time when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13 was followed by the largest change in business perceptions by far. In contrast, the data provides no evidence for the relevance of other potential sources of information on business perceptions: Firms did not learn from foreign policy measures, even if they relied on inputs from China or Italy. The local, county-level spread of COVID-19 cases affected expectations and uncertainty, albeit to a much lesser extent than the domestic policy changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Buchheim Lukas & Krolage Carla & Link Sebastian, 2022. "Sudden stop: When did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 79-119, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:23:y:2022:i:1:p:79-119:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0139
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Emanuele Brancati & Marco Brianti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2020. "Credit Constraints anf Firms' Decisions: Evidence from the COVID-19 Outbreak Italian Firms’ Expectations and Plans," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1013, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 07 Oct 2022.
    2. Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2020. "Subjective Uncertainty, Expectations, and Firm Behavior," MPRA Paper 103516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2022. "Uncertainty of Firms' Medium-term Outlook during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 22079, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Andrea Lamorgese & Megha Patnaik & Andrea Linarello & Fabiano Schivardi, 2024. "Management Practices and Resilience to Shocks: Evidence from COVID-19," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 9058-9072, December.
    5. Almut Balleer & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Peter Zorn, 2024. "Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment Heterogeneity during the COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 93-157, February.
    6. Demmelhuber Katrin & Sauer Stefan & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2023. "Beyond the Business Climate: Supplementary Questions in the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(2), pages 169-182, April.
    7. Balleer, Almut & Zorn, Peter & Link, Sebastian & Menkhoff, Manuel, 2020. "Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14907, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Julia Freuding & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "Die Dauer der Einschränkungen des öffentlichen Lebens und die Normalisierung der Geschäftslage: Was erwarten die Unternehmen?," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(4), February.
    9. Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2022. "Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Miriam Bruhn & Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Dorothe Singer, 2023. "Competition and firm recovery post-COVID-19," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1555-1586, December.
    11. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401.
    12. Adelheid Holl & Ruth Rama & Hannah Hammond, 2025. "COVID-19 and Business Digitalization: Unveiling the Effects of Concurrent Strategies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(4), pages 15456-15490, October.
    13. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski & Bojan Srbinoski, 2020. "The potential of export-oriented companies to contribute to post-Covid-19 economic recovery in North Macedonia," Finance Think Policy Studies 2020-12/33, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    14. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2021. "Uncertainty of Firms' Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 21042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Jonas Hennrich & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "From ‘I don’t like Mondays’ to ‘Friday I’m in love’ – day-of-the-week effects in business surveys," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(21), pages 3168-3172, December.
    16. Guerrero-Amezaga, Maria Elena & Humphries, John Eric & Neilson, Christopher A. & Shimberg, Naomi & Ulyssea, Gabriel, 2022. "Small firms and the pandemic: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    17. Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2020. "Local economies amidst the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: a tale of diverging trajectories," MPRA Paper 104404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Xavier Cirera & Marcio Cruz & Elwyn Davies & Arti Grover & Leonardo Iacovone & Jose Ernesto Lopez Cordova & Denis Medvedev & Franklin Okechukwu Maduko & Gaurav Nayyar & Santiago Reyes Ortega & Jesica , 2021. "Policies to Support Businesses through the COVID-19 Shock: A Firm Level Perspective [Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 41-66.
    19. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Brancati, Emanuele & Brianti, Marco & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2020. "The Economic Effects of COVID-19 and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Italian Firms' Expectations and Plans," IZA Discussion Papers 13629, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Halyna Mishchuk & Jakub Jerzy Czarkowski & Anastasiia Neverkovets & Eszter Lukács, 2023. "Ensuring Sustainable Development in Light of Pandemic “New Normal” Influence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-16, September.
    21. Hottenrott, Hanna & Schoonjans, Eline, 2024. "Taking it personally? The role of personality in strategic crisis management," ZEW Discussion Papers 24-086, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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