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Ensemble Methods for Causal Effects in Panel Data Settings

Author

Listed:
  • Susan Athey
  • Mohsen Bayati
  • Guido Imbens
  • Zhaonan Qu

Abstract

In many prediction problems researchers have found that combinations of prediction methods ("ensembles") perform better than individual methods. In this paper we apply these ideas to synthetic control type problems in panel data. Here a number of conceptually quite different methods have been developed. We compare the predictive accuracy of three methods with an ensemble method and find that the latter dominates. These results show that ensemble methods are a practical and effective method for the type of data configurations typically encountered in empirical work in economics, and that these methods deserve more attention.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan Athey & Mohsen Bayati & Guido Imbens & Zhaonan Qu, 2019. "Ensemble Methods for Causal Effects in Panel Data Settings," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 65-70, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:109:y:2019:p:65-70
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191069
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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