IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/494pre.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

Author

Listed:
  • Qiu, Yun
  • Chen, Xi
  • Shi, Wei

Abstract

This paper models the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29 in 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics two weeks ago are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantine, city lockdown, and local public health measures imposed since late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population out ow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths could have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiu, Yun & Chen, Xi & Shi, Wei, 2020. "Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China," GLO Discussion Paper Series 494 [pre.], Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:494pre
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/215739/1/GLO-DP-0494pre.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Achim Ahrens & Christian B. Hansen & Mark E. Schaffer, 2020. "lassopack: Model selection and prediction with regularized regression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 20(1), pages 176-235, March.
    2. Markowitz, Sara & Nesson, Erik & Robinson, Joshua J., 2019. "The effects of employment on influenza rates," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 286-295.
    3. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Damian Kozbur, 2016. "Inference in High-Dimensional Panel Models With an Application to Gun Control," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 590-605, October.
    4. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    5. Corey White, 2018. "Measuring the Social and Externality Benefits of Influenza Vaccination," Working Papers 1803, California Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2014. "Inference on Treatment Effects after Selection among High-Dimensional Controlsâ€," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(2), pages 608-650.
    7. Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2017. "The pros and cons of sick pay schemes: Testing for contagious presenteeism and noncontagious absenteeism behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 14-33.
    8. Slusky, David J.G. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2021. "Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    9. Emily Oster, 2012. "Routes Of Infection: Exports And Hiv Incidence In Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1025-1058, October.
    10. Puhani, Patrick A., 2020. "France and Germany Exceed Italy, South Korea and Japan in Temperature-Adjusted Corona Proliferation - A Quick and Dirty Sunday Morning Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-668, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Maurer, Jürgen, 2009. "Who has a clue to preventing the flu? Unravelling supply and demand effects on the take-up of influenza vaccinations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 704-717, May.
    12. Fang, Hanming & Wang, Long & Yang, Yang, 2020. "Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2011. "Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 629-655, April.
    14. Choujun Zhan & Chi K Tse & Yuxia Fu & Zhikang Lai & Haijun Zhang, 2020. "Modeling and prediction of the 2019 coronavirus disease spreading in China incorporating human migration data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, 2018. "Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 429-451, April.
    16. A. Godzinski & M. Suarez Castillo, 2019. "Short-term health effects of public transport disruptions: air pollution and viral spread channels," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2019-03, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    17. Barmby, Tim & Larguem, Makram, 2009. "Coughs and sneezes spread diseases: An empirical study of absenteeism and infectious illness," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1012-1017, September.
    18. Zhang, Peng & Zhang, Junjie & Chen, Minpeng, 2017. "Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: The importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 8-31.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus F. Zimmermann & Gokhan Karabulut & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Asli Cansin Doker, 2020. "Inter‐country distancing, globalisation and the coronavirus pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1484-1498, June.
    2. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    3. Corey White, 2018. "Measuring the Social and Externality Benefits of Influenza Vaccination," Working Papers 1803, California Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Slusky, David J.G. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2021. "Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    5. Ján Palguta & Levínský, René & Škoda, Samuel, 2021. "Do Elections Accelerate the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 891, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Gonzalo Castex & Evgenia Dechter & Miguel Lorca, 2021. "COVID-19: The impact of social distancing policies, cross-country analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 135-159, April.
    7. Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2019. "Reprint of: The pros and cons of sick pay schemes: Testing for contagious presenteeism and noncontagious absenteeism behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 86-104.
    8. Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2017. "The pros and cons of sick pay schemes: Testing for contagious presenteeism and noncontagious absenteeism behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 14-33.
    9. Achim Ahrens & Sean Lyons, 2021. "Do rising rents lead to longer commutes? A gravity model of commuting flows in Ireland," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(2), pages 264-279, February.
    10. Stefan Pichler & Katherine Wen & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2021. "Positive Health Externalities of Mandating Paid Sick Leave," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 715-743, June.
    11. Valsecchi, Michele & Durante, Ruben, 2021. "Internal migration networks and mortality in home communities: Evidence from Italy during the Covid-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. Godzinski, Alexandre & Suarez Castillo, Milena, 2021. "Disentangling the effects of air pollutants with many instruments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Michele Valsecchi & Ruben Durante, 2020. "Internal migration and the spread of Covid-19," Working Papers w0276, New Economic School (NES).
    14. Joanna Wyrobek, 2020. "The Use of Decision Trees for Analysis of the Potential Determinants for the Incidence of Deaths and Cases of Coronavirus (Covid-19) in Different Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 556-566.
    15. Collins, Alan & Fan, Jingwen & Mahabir, Aruneema, 2022. "Actual versus ‘natural’ rates of suicide: Evidence from the USA," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    16. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Christian Hansen & Kengo Kato, 2018. "High-dimensional econometrics and regularized GMM," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    18. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.
    19. Chen, Simiao & Jin, Zhangfeng & Bloom, David E., 2020. "Act Early to Prevent Infections and Save Lives: Causal Impact of Diagnostic Efficiency on the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13749, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Maclean, J. Catherine & Pichler, Stefan & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2020. "Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Welfare Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 13132, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    2019 novel coronavirus; transmission; quarantine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:494pre. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.