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Internal migration networks and mortality in home communities: Evidence from Italy during the Covid-19 pandemic

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  • Valsecchi, Michele
  • Durante, Ruben

Abstract

Do internal migration networks benefit or harm their home communities in case of a communicable disease? Looking at the spread of Covid in Italy and using pre-determined province-to-province migration, excess mortality and mobile phone tracking data, we document that provinces with a greater share of migrants in outbreak areas show greater compliance with self-isolation measures (information mechanism), but also a greater population inflow from outbreak areas (carrier mechanism). For a subset of localities, the net effect on mortality is negative. However, for the average locality, the effect is positive and large, suggesting that the role of migrants as information providers is trumped by their role as virus carriers. The effect is quantitatively important and could be incorporated in epidemiological models forecasting the spread of communicable diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Valsecchi, Michele & Durante, Ruben, 2021. "Internal migration networks and mortality in home communities: Evidence from Italy during the Covid-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:140:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121002051
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103890
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    1. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. World Bank, "undated". "Coping with Shocks," World Bank Publications - Reports 38066, The World Bank Group.
    3. Valerie Mueller & Camila Páez-Bernal & Clark Gray & Karen Grépin, 2023. "The Gendered Consequences of COVID-19 for Internal Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-37, August.
    4. Lilian Kojan & Laura Burbach & Martina Ziefle & André Calero Valdez, 2022. "Perceptions of behaviour efficacy, not perceptions of threat, are drivers of COVID-19 protective behaviour in Germany," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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