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Turnout in the Municipal Elections of March 2020 and Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Epidemic in France

Author

Listed:
  • Simone Bertoli

    (UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Guichard Lucas

    (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Francesca Marchetta

    (UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

We analyze the consequences of the decision of French government to maintain the first round of the municipal elections on March 15, 2020 on local excess mortality in the following weeks. We exploit heterogeneity across municipalities in voter turnout, which we instrument using a measure of the intensity of local competition. The results reveal that a higher turnout was associated with a significantly higher death counts for the elderly population in the five weeks after the elections. If the historically low turnout in 2020 had been at its 2014 level, the number of deaths would have been 21.8 percent higher than the one that was recorded. More than three quarters of these additional deaths would have occurred among the individuals aged 80 and above.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Bertoli & Guichard Lucas & Francesca Marchetta, 2020. "Turnout in the Municipal Elections of March 2020 and Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Epidemic in France," Working Papers hal-03159025, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03159025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sonia R. Bhalotra & Alberto Diaz-Cayeros & Grant Miller & Alfonso Miranda & Atheendar S. Venkataramani, 2017. "Urban Water Disinfection and Mortality Decline in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 23239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bach, Laurent & Guillouzouic, Arthur & Malgouyres, Clément, 2021. "Does holding elections during a Covid-19 pandemic put the lives of politicians at risk?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    3. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2022. "The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 963-988, July.
    4. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Valsecchi, Michele & Durante, Ruben, 2021. "Internal migration networks and mortality in home communities: Evidence from Italy during the Covid-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Sara M. Constantino & Alicia D. Cooperman & Thiago M. Q. Moreira, 2021. "Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2210-2235, September.
    7. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    8. Cipullo, Davide & Le Moglie, Marco, 2022. "To vote, or not to vote? Electoral campaigns and the spread of COVID-19," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Borra, Cristina & Rivera-Garrido, Noelia & Sevilla, Almudena, 2021. "Early adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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