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Early adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 mortality

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  • Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina
  • Borra, Cristina
  • Rivera-Garrido, Noelia
  • Sevilla, Almudena

Abstract

To contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the globe have adopted social distancing measures. Yet, establishing the causal effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is difficult because they do not occur arbitrarily. We exploit a quasi-random source of variation for identification purposes –namely, regional differences in the placement on the pandemic curve following an unexpected and nationwide lockdown. Our results reveal that regions where the outbreak had just started when the lockdown was implemented had 1.62 fewer daily deaths per 100,000 inhabitants when compared to regions for which the lockdown arrived 10+ days after the pandemic’s outbreak. As a result, a total of 4,642 total deaths (232 deaths/daily) could have been avoided by the end of our period of study –a figure representing 23% of registered deaths in Spain at the time. We rule out differential pre−COVID mortality trends and self-distancing behaviors across the compared regions prior to the swift lockdown, which was also uniformly observed nationwide. In addition, we provide supporting evidence for contagion deceleration as the main mechanism behind the effectiveness of the early adoption of NPIs in lowering the death rate, rather than an increased healthcare capacity.

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  • Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Borra, Cristina & Rivera-Garrido, Noelia & Sevilla, Almudena, 2021. "Early adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions and COVID-19 mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:42:y:2021:i:c:s1570677x21000277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy [Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    3. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2022. "Mass gathering events and the spread of infectious diseases: Evidence from the early growth phase of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    4. Miriam Marcén & Marina Morales, 2021. "The intensity of COVID‐19 nonpharmaceutical interventions and labor market outcomes in the public sector," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 775-798, September.
    5. Cooper, Daniel & Garga, Vaishali & Luengo-Prado, María José & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    6. Sen, Anindya & Baker, John David & Zhang, Qihuang & Agarwal, Rishav Raj & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2023. "Do more stringent policies reduce daily COVID-19 case counts? Evidence from Canadian provinces," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 225-242.
    7. Feng Wang & Xing Ge & Danwen Huang, 2022. "Government Intervention, Human Mobility, and COVID-19: A Causal Pathway Analysis from 121 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
    8. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin, 2021. "Facing an unfortunate trade-off: policy responses, lessons and spill-overs during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Coronavirus; Lockdown; Mortality; Pandemic; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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