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The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Roy Cerqueti

    (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

  • Raffaella Coppier
  • Alessandro Girardi
  • Marco Ventura

Abstract

Summary This paper estimates the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions – mainly, the lockdown – on the COVID-19 mortality rate for the case of Italy, the first Western country to impose a national shelter-in-place order. We use a new estimator, the augmented synthetic control method (ASCM), that overcomes some limits of the standard synthetic control method (SCM). The results are twofold. From a methodological point of view, the ASCM outperforms the SCM in that the latter cannot select a valid donor set, assigning all the weights to only one country (Spain) while placing zero weights to all the remaining. From an empirical point of view, we find strong evidence of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in avoiding losses of human lives in Italy: conservative estimates indicate that the policy saved in total more than 21,000 human lives.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy," Post-Print hal-03789141, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03789141
    DOI: 10.1093/ectj/utab027
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    Cited by:

    1. Feindouno, Sosso & Arcand, Jean-Louis & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2024. "COVID-19's death transfer to Sub-Saharan Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    2. Antoci, Angelo & Sabatini, Fabio & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Sodini, Mauro, 2022. "Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 22-39.
    3. Sarah Kelley & M. D. R. Evans & Jonathan Kelley, 2023. "Happily Distant or Bitter Medicine? The Impact of Social Distancing Preferences, Behavior, and Emotional Costs on Subjective Wellbeing During the Epidemic," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 115-162, February.
    4. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Sabatini, Fabio, 2022. "Can relief measures nudge compliance in a public health crisis? Evidence from a kinked fiscal policy rule," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 407-428.
    5. Girardi, Alessandro & Ventura, Marco, 2023. "The cost of waiting and the death toll in Italy during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Lukas Breide & Oliver Budzinski & Thomas Grebel & Juliane Mendelsohn, 2025. "Forerunners vs. latecomers—institutional competition in the German federalism during the COVID crisis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 101-132, February.
    7. Cerqueti, Roy & Tramontana, Fabio & Ventura, Marco, 2022. "The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 97-107.
    8. Crudu, Federico & Di Stefano, Roberta & Mellace, Giovanni & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2024. "The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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