IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v442y2006i7101d10.1038_nature04795.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Neil M. Ferguson

    (Imperial College London)

  • Derek A. T. Cummings

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • Christophe Fraser

    (Imperial College London)

  • James C. Cajka

    (RTI International Inc.)

  • Philip C. Cooley

    (RTI International Inc.)

  • Donald S. Burke

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

Abstract

Pandemic flu: talking tactics Numerical models of the epidemiology of a potential flu pandemic show there is no single magic bullet which can control the outbreak, but that a combination of approaches could reduce transmission and save many lives. Border restrictions are unlikely to have much effect and travel restrictions within one country would make very little difference to the spread of a pandemic within that country. The models predict that a pandemic in the United Kingdom would peak within two to three months of the first case, and be over within 4 months. It also shows that vaccines need to be available within two months of the start of a pandemic to have a big effect in reducing infection rates. That means that vaccines would need to be stockpiled in advance to be effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:442:y:2006:i:7101:d:10.1038_nature04795
    DOI: 10.1038/nature04795
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04795
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nature04795?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:442:y:2006:i:7101:d:10.1038_nature04795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.