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Death, demography and the denominator: New Influenza-18 mortality estimates for Ireland

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  • Colvin, Christopher L.
  • McLaughlin, Eoin

Abstract

Using the Irish experience of the Spanish flu, we demonstrate that pandemic mortality statistics are sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new demographic database for Ireland's 32 counties with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. We then show how age-at-death statistics in 1918 and 1919 should be reinterpreted in light of these data. Our new estimates suggest the very young were most impacted by the flu. New studies of the economic impact of Influenza-18 must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant results. Covid-19 mortality statistics must go through a similar procedure so policymakers can better target their public health interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2020. "Death, demography and the denominator: New Influenza-18 mortality estimates for Ireland," SRERC Working Paper Series SRERCWP2020-2, University College Cork (UCC), Spatial and Regional Economic Research Centre (SRERC).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:srercw:srercwp20202
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    3. Brownlow, Graham & Colvin, Christopher L., 2022. "Economic history and the future of pedagogy in economics," QUCEH Working Paper Series 22-09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    4. Angioloni, Simone & Jack, Claire, 2022. "Farm fatalities in Northern Ireland agriculture: What fifty years of data tell us," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
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    6. Lina Martínez & John Rennie Short, 2021. "The Pandemic City: Urban Issues in the Time of COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-10, March.
    7. Mühlhoff, Katharina, 2022. "Convincing the “Herd” of immunity: Lessons from smallpox vaccination in 19th century Germany," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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