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Death, demography and the denominator: New Influenza-18 mortality estimates for Ireland

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  • Colvin, Christopher L.
  • McLaughlin, Eoin

Abstract

Using the Irish experience of the Spanish flu, we demonstrate that pandemic mortality statistics are sensitive to the demographic composition of a country. We build a new demographic database for Ireland's 32 counties with vital statistics on births, ageing, migration and deaths. We then show how age-at-death statistics in 1918 and 1919 should be reinterpreted in light of these data. Our new estimates suggest the very young were most impacted by the flu. New studies of the economic impact of Influenza-18 must better control for demographic factors if they are to yield useful policy-relevant results. Covid-19 mortality statistics must go through a similar procedure so policymakers can better target their public health interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2020. "Death, demography and the denominator: New Influenza-18 mortality estimates for Ireland," SRERC Working Paper Series SRERCWP2020-2, University College Cork (UCC), Spatial and Regional Economic Research Centre (SRERC).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:srercw:srercwp20202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan Fernihough, 2019. "Across the Sea to Ireland: Return Atlantic Migration before the First World War," Working Papers 201929, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lina Martínez & John Rennie Short, 2021. "The Pandemic City: Urban Issues in the Time of COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-10, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic economics; pandemics; age-adjusted mortality; Spanish flu; Ireland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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