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A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics

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  • Peter Zhixian Lin
  • Christopher M. Meissner

Abstract

Covid-19 is the single largest threat to global public health since the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-20. Was the world better prepared in 2020 than it was in 1918? After a century of public health and basic science research, pandemic response and mortality outcomes should be better than in 1918-20. We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. We find a strong persistence in public health performance in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Places that performed poorly in terms of mortality in 1918 were more likely to have higher mortality today. This is true across countries and across a sample of US cities. Experience with SARS is associated with lower mortality today. Distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation at many levels, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages have likely promoted higher mortality today as in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Zhixian Lin & Christopher M. Meissner, 2020. "A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics," NBER Working Papers 27119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arnstein Aassve & Guido Alfani & Francesco Gandolfi & Marco Le Moglie, 2021. "Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 840-857, April.
    2. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8166, CESifo.
    4. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Long-term consequences
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Spanish Influenza

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    2. Lea Immel & Florian Neumeier & Andreas Peichl, 2022. "The Unequal Consequences of the Covid‐19 Pandemic: Evidence from a Large Representative German Population Survey," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 471-496, June.
    3. Giofré, Maela, 2021. "COVID-19 stringency measures and foreign investment: An early assessment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Mona Förtsch & Felix Rösel, 2021. "The Spanish Flu Killed 260,000 in Germany in 1918," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(03), pages 06-09, June.
    5. Buesa, Alejandro & Pérez, Javier J. & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2021. "Awareness of pandemics and the impact of COVID-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Frank Milne & David Longworth, 2020. "Covid-19 and the Lack of Public Health and Government Preparation," Working Paper 1436, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Gregori Galofre-Vila & Maria Gomez-Leon & David Stuckler, 2021. "A Lesson from History? The 1918 Inuenza pandemic and the rise of Italian Fascism: A cross-city quantitative and historical text qualitative analysis," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 2102, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    8. Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2021. "Death, demography and the denominator: Age-adjusted Influenza-18 mortality in Ireland," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    9. Klaus Gründler & Armin Hackenberger & Anina Harter & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "Covid-19 Vaccination: The Role of Crisis Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 9096, CESifo.
    10. Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2020. "Death, demography and the denominator: New Influenza-18 mortality estimates for Ireland," SRERC Working Paper Series SRERCWP2020-2, University College Cork (UCC), Spatial and Regional Economic Research Centre (SRERC).
    11. Propper, Carol & Kunz, Johannes, 2022. "Is Hospital Quality Predictive of Pandemic Deaths? Evidence from US Counties," CEPR Discussion Papers 17365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Kunz, Johannes S. & Propper, Carol, 2023. "JUE Insight: Is hospital quality predictive of pandemic deaths? Evidence from US counties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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